Friday, March 11, 2016

Playoff Chances Updated

From February 3rd

"If Regina or Edmonton doesn't falter the Tigers need to win @ a .700 rate. which is essentially pulling a rabbit out of the net at this point in the season."

Since Then
Edmonton has 12 points in 14 games...Keeping their same rate, but a tiny bit lower than my math predictions which estimated them at a .500 rate.

The Tigers went 15 points in 15 games (.500) rate. It is well  below the needed target of .700

What That Means
The Tigers have only made a small gain.

The Good News is that in their last 10 games, they are playing at a .750 rate. If they continue that rate, they have a shot at making the playoffs.

They were pretty much on the border of no return, before pulling off 15/20 points.

Schedules Remaining
Tigers:  KTN( H,A) CGY(A), Leth(H,A)
Edmonton: CGY(H,A) Leth(A) ktn(A), RD(H,A)

Both teams play 3 games in 3 nights this weekend, and again could potentially harbor a big swing. The Tigers could both leapfrog Edmonton or become eliminated completely.

3.5 Edmonton wins or Tiger losses will equal elimination.
Edmonton has a tough schedule, but the Tigers do as well.


Anonymous said...

Good chemistry on the lines tonite. Liked Butcher and Owre. Go tigers!

longtimefan said...

Turn off the lights.

TigerTurf said...


Edmonton lost tonight. They coulda been tied with a game in hand. Fortunately edmonton lost as well.

The magic numbers dips to 2.5 Edmonton wins, or Tigers losses.

CatFan said...

You know part of me doesn't want our team in the playoffs. I feel badly for the players but I don't want to give this ownership one more dime of my money this year. They obviously don't give a rat's ass about the team or fans and I really want them gone!!!

TigerTurf said...

I feel the same way.

I have been struggling on whether I will renew my tickets for next year. I feel sad for even thinking of that.

WHLFan said...

Been a Season Ticket holder for 10+ years. Wont be renewing tickets next year. I will be letting my wallet do the talking for me.
Ownership has had too much control in this city for many years. Time for ownership to give back to the fans and this city.

Orange blood said...

I too won't be renewing my season ticket package. Hurt them were it matters the most to them. In there wallets. Just seeing the Masers with there smirks on there face just makes me want them gone!

longtimefan said...

Unfortunately the owners of this team seem unwilling to recognize that treating the people that pay the bills with respect should be a priority. They've taken it for granted for years that people will just show up and haven't worked to hard to keep them there because they didn't have to. No banners hanging in the building might seem like a small thing but to me it's a slap in the face to the fans who have spent their hard earned money to support the team over the years. It's kind of like a badge of honour that's been taken away. No third jersey. I believe the Tigers are the only team in the entire league that doesn't have one. Is it being cheap, probably. If that's the case have a jersey off the back night and auction them off at some point in the season. No unused ticket night, that might take some planning. And no playoffs.

I, unlike a lot of people will most likely renew my tickets but, after over 40 of having them I'm also getting near the end of the rope. This no lease thing has really pissed me off because I know why it's being held up and in my mind it's all on the Tigers shoulders. Get it done for gods sake!

Anonymous said...

Who would have thought having a brand new arena that the owners would not have got excited and did some celebrating and enjoyed the season it is only new once!!! I have enjoyed the energy of Jessie the announcer, but I am afraid the mgmt gets a grade of ZERO. the only way I renew is if there is new ownership in place with some excitement and energy by the end of June!!!

CatFan said...

While we are on the subject a couple of other things to piss me off: no discount card with the season tickets, no fan appreciation night the last couple of years, when I had problems with where I was seated and left e-mails and phone calls? No reply! One negative comment on their Facebook site and I can no longer make comments, they removed me. No store, no home dressing room, the list goes on and on!!!

longtimefan said...

Just want to say all the issues I have are with the ownership and not with the players themselves. The players, and especially for the last 15 games have played their hearts out to try to get that last playoff spot.

CatFan said...

Longtimefan: I second that. The players deserve better than what they are getting as well.

Anonymous said...

If the Tigers and Oil Kings finish with the same amount of points, do the Tigers get the tie breaker just based on head to head games?

longtimefan said...

Anon 12:30, no. There would be a one game playoff most likely played here.

Anonymous said...

To further elaborate on longtimefan's post:

From the WHL website

c) In the event two Clubs are tied in points for the last playoff position, then these Clubs will play a sudden-death game in the home arena of the Club having won the most games in WHL standings. If the Clubs are tied in wins, (a) will be used to select the home site.

TigerTurf said...

A combo of 1.5 Edmonton wins or Tiger losses = elimination.

Edmonton plays their game in hand against Kootenay Tuesday. If edmonton wins it means the best the Tigers could do is hope for a 1 game playoff.

Edmonton also plays Thursday against Red Deer before the Tigers play their next game.

TigerTurf said...

Mathematically It is not possible for the Tigers to Tie edmonton with less wins. Therefore if the Tigers manage a 1 game playoff it will me in MH.

If Edmonton wins Tuesday night It would guarantee them at least a Tie for 8th.
This year is interesting in the east. Their is not 1 match-up that is solid yet.

TigerTurf said...

EDM vs Kootenay tonight. C'mon Kootenay

Anonymous said...

Vote for Stanton on the WHL site for CHL fan choice play of the week.

TigerTurf said...

Holy crap. Kootenay did the Tigers a favor and beat edmonton.

Brandon has locked first, so they will play edm or TIgers in round one.

Edmonton has 2 games against Red Deer.
Tigers have 2 games against lethbridge

They are 2 points behind. Can they come bac??

Anonymous said...

Kootenay has really made things interesting. I genuinely believe this Tigers team can pull it off. They've been relentless all season. Edmonton's goal tending has been their weakness. As unhappy as I've been with the owners, I'm very happy with the group of kids on this team.