Monday, November 13, 2017

Is the WHL becoming More Offensive?

Is The WHL Game Changing?
Bob Ridley has stated in the past, he feels the game tends to change every 5 years or so.
This season and last, I feel that offence has been rising and I'm curious to see if the numbers back it up.


Key Rules Changes
2014-2015 - The last WHL Import Goaltender played in the 2014-2015 season(Marek Langhamer)
2015-2016 - 3v3 overtime introduced before the shootout (previously 4x4)
2016-2017 - Kicking the Puck in the Net is allowed(as long as the player is not in the crease)

Before the 3v3 OT rule was in place, the whl was seeing close to a 50-50 split in terms of games being won in OT or a shootout.  Last season 92 were solved in OT, and only 38 went to a shootout.


Total Goals Scored (Shootout goals not counted)

Year
Goals Scored
Powerplay Goals
17-18
5529 (Projection)
1539
16-17
5340
1389
15-16
5101
1311
14-15
5177
1286
13-14
5218
1397
12-13
5019
1305

Note: There was a goal boom in 2016-2017, and it looks to be increasing for this season at a very similar rate to powerplay goals.


Goaltender Save Percentage.

Years
Total Shots
Total Saves
Total Save Percentage
17-18
510975(projection)
45754
.895
16-17
51285
46109
.889
15-16
50149
45216
.902
14-15
50035
45045
.900
13-14
51862
46805
.902
12-13
50123
45247
.903

Note1: A statistically significant substantial decrease of .13 points in 2016-2017
Notes2: Although Shots are at a high point they aren't above the high of the last 6 seasons.


Powerplay Goals

Year
Total PP’s
Total Goals
Total SHG
Percentage
17-18 (Projection)
6787
1539
197
22.7%
16-17
6560
1389
199
21.2%
15-16
6209
1311
197
21.1%
14-15
6268
1286
190
20.5%
13-14
6540
1397
202
21.4%
12-13
6601
1305
200
19.8%

Note:   Total Powerplay chances and conversions seem to be an all time high, but the goal boom of 2016-2017 doesn't seem to show a big increase.
Note2:  This season total PP's and conversion are at a high, but we will see if that continues to the end of the season.


Summary
We don't have enough data to make a 100% conclusion; However, goal scoring appears to be on the rise in the WHL and goaltending has taken a hit.

Previously .900 was a basic figure a team would classify as "competitively average". With the recent offensive outburst, .900 save percentage is now above average.

What is the main cause? Probably a combination of more goals being scored in OT, a few extra goals being allowed via kicking them in outside the crease, as well as a slight decrease in goaltending talent with the removal of Import Goaltenders.

I would also argue that more teams are adapting to an offensive style of hockey as wanted by their fans. An Example of a defensive casualty would be Kevin Constantine with the Everett Silvertips. The Tips made the 2nd round with impressive records in each of the last 3 seasons, but was let go (likely because of his defensive style of hockey)

We will have to keep an eye on things, but it appears that the hockey world (at least in the WHL) might be starting to enter a golden age in goal scoring.