Saturday, December 2, 2017

Eastern Conference Expectations

To Push or Not To Push

Late November and early December is the point of the season where teams have outlined their identity and going through a set of checks and balances to determine their overall strengths and weaknesses.

Usually, by now there are signs of hot starts slowing down, and weak starts heating up. The teams that are falling may still be winning, but hanging on for dear life, while the teams that are heating up may not necessarily be winning, but are outplaying their opponents.

For the teams who haven't solidified there identity, December is an evaluation month for the upcoming trade deadliJanuaryanuary.


Past History
Past history has told us that big splashes in the trade market have had high failure rates as mentioned in a previous post ; however, occasionally these deals have indeed vaulted a team to the top

This season has already seen a few big splashes in the Eastern Conference.  Regina Landing Cale Fleury, and Swift Acquiring Gennaro and Malenstyn.

Eastern Conference
Is very top heavy. There seems to be few average or above average teams. Instead we have some powerhouses and basement dwellers.


Season Review
I'm going to do a mini-review on all Eastern Conference Teams starting with some of my pre-season rankings. Further down the page, I will do a small recap on a team by team basis and throw some thoughts out on the recaps.



Brandon Wheat Kings

Pre-Season Goal Projection: 225
Current Pace:  299

Pre-Season: I had them listed as an "Average Team", that was volatile. Last season they struggled and this year would lose a high profile player in Nolan Patrick. I listed them as volatile because they retained some really good talent in the lineup and going into this season had advantageous draft positions. There was room for them to exceed expectations, but I wasn't confident in their ability to do so.

Players Exceeding Expectations:
Stelio Mattheos, Kale Clague, Linden McCorrister, Connor Gutenberg, Evan Weinger

Most of these guys are their skilled top 6 players, but looking at projections from last year they are all exceeding them.  Example Clague only scored 5 goals last season in an injury-shortened season, but he already has 10 this year and has powered up their powerplay.

Future Thoughts
Brandon has a well-balanced roster, and they just received a big return. Overage Defenceman James Shearer has been out the whole season with an injury. Brandon plays a very high tempo, quick team game, and according to Masseyratings.com, has the easiest schedule in the league.

Brandon should also have a solid team next year because they are well balanced in terms of skill and age groups. There are 3, potentially 4 strong teams in their division, and getting out of the East will be hell in the playoffs.  They could have a .700 record and finish without Home-Ice in the first round. Two teams in their division have already added peices, and it is likely that number will jump to 3.

Due to the strength of their division, it is uncertain if they will choose to add or just stay status quo. I feel they are in a similar position to Medicine Hat. They have a solid roster, perhaps overachieved a little with an easier schedule, but they have some very talented players. I think at this point they are still in evaluation mode, and perhaps in another month, the decisions to buy/add/stay status quo will become clearer as the conference sorts themselves out.

A successful season would be getting into the 2nd round of the playoffs, but that is a goal that may be incredibly difficult.. Competitively speaking being ok with a great season and a first-round playoff exit doesn't sit well in hockey. They are winning, but also in a tough spot. It will be interesting to see what they do.


Calgary Hitman
Pre-Season Goal Projection: 252-276
Current Pace:  216


Pre-Season
Similar to Brandon I had them listed as Average, but volatile. Their defense and goaltending were weak last season, with medium turnover. They did have all of their offensive players back this season, so there was hope that they would be much stronger. I thought they were volatile because I felt their overall improvement and few losses would improve their roster, even though their draft positioning was disadvantageous.


Future Thoughts
They had an injury to key forward Beck Malenstyn. Their 2nd line forwards hasn't seen a great deal of improvement and their offence has dried up. As a result, the Hitmen have already decided to sell, and have pumped up their roster full of 16's and 17's.

The Central division is incredibly weak and getting 2nd/3rd in the division is still a possibility. The Hitmen have bargaining power with Jake bean. He may be one of the most prized assets out there, and the Hitman could relay the fact that they still want to get into the playoffs.

I expect them to sell Bean and try to get a roster player in return.  Despite their younger roster and poor record, they could still have a shot at playoffs just because the central is soo weak.

A positive outlook for them would be to make the playoffs. They did receive 3 roster players in their recent deal. If they happen to click their is outside potential to laugh into the 2nd round while some of the Eastern Beasts look in with distaste.

A more realistic goal would be to get into the playoffs and gain some assets for the future.


Edmonton Oil Kings

Pre-Season Goal Projection: 225
Current Pace:  195

Pre-Season
I marked them as having "a developing year" as their roster was very young. I put them into average territory because I was intrigued by some of their younger talents. The OIl Kings loaded up on the young guys with very few veterans.

Future Thoughts
They had a good start to the season, but have stumbled and as of writing this post, have lost 12 games in a row. They have a pretty good top line offensively, but defensively they have no veteran defenceman and are simply too young to handle some of these teams that can score goals.

They are doing the rebuild the old fashioned way, giving their young players all the ice-time. As a result this season and next will be underwhelming, but in 2 years they should have a much stronger team on the ice.

Being in the conversation for the playoffs would be a good season, but they would probably rather have a higher draft pick. Oil Kings fans should stay patient, this is the "down cycle" for their winning years of the past. A playoff berth would be considered an above average achievement.


Kootenay Ice
Pre-Season Goal Projection: 210
Current Pace:  205 

Pre-Season
I had them listed as having a roster that was prime to tinker with. Pre-season they had an aging roster that was lesser skilled. I listed them as an average team, where a wildcard spot would be considered successful.

Expectations
They did tinker. New goaltenders, completely re-worked their defence, and traded away their 3rd line.

They have traded for youth at all 3 positions.  They have done a great job at re-balancing their age groups and getting away from an ageing core.  They did just trade away their best defenceman, but the Central Division is soo weak, that they probably have a good shot at getting a playoff spot anyway.

When their new GM first started to make a couple moves for Overagers, I was questioning their new ownership/GM group. I realized those picks were all conditional and the players they traded for were released and basically experiments. I took a closer look and realized they were re-balancing their group rather well. I have cautious hope for Kootenay going forward and like their roster a hell of a lot better than pre-season.

Getting 3rd in the division would be a good season, but there may be a temptation to keep what they have and not sell further.  There is a door open for an easier path to round 2. They do have a couple 19yr olds who might be asked about in trade scenarios. Forward Vince Loschiavo has struggled a bit and only has 6 goals where last season he put up nearly 30.



Lethbridge Hurricanes

Pre-Season Goal Projection: 220
Current Pace:  253

Pre-Season
I had them listed as above average and a team I wasn't sure about. I expected them to retain a rock-solid defence & goaltending with all potential core members returning but had questions offensively. They unexpectedly lost a key overage defenceman and acquired Olsen Tate from Prince George to fill the unexpected loss of Brennan Menell.

Expectations
I feel they have under-achieved so far. They have had a few medium-term injuries, and have swapped Overages as their players returned to health. Lethbridge has struggled on the road and went through a tough stretch losing 8 games in a row when rookie superstar Dylan Cozens was off playing in the under 17's

They have scored a few more goals than I expected, but their defence hasn't been as strong as I expected either. With the weakness of the Central division, I see them as the front-runner for the 2nd place spot in the division. I could see them upgrading one of their overage slots, but defenceman may be at a premium this season.

Instead of looking to add, they may ponder selling. They have a bundle of 19's offensively and defensively that may be inquired about. Like Brandon, they may still be evaluating their roster, and unsure about what their ultimate direction will be this season.  I would not be surprised to see a small rebalancing and selling a 19 or two for younger assets, while still trying to make a 2nd round playoff appearance.


Medicine Hat Tigers

Pre-Season Goal Projection: 310
Current Pace:  288

Pre-Season
I had them listed as a top tier and potential championship team if all the pieces of the puzzle fell into place.  Tigers unexpectedly lost Zach Fischer who went home and Mason Shaw with a near season-ending injury.

Expectations
They are leading the central division by default, but in an underdog type role compared to the Eastern Conference.  Their defence hasn't been as strong as expected, but their offence has been better than expected if you count the losses of Shaw and Fischer.

I expect Lethbridge to press them as the season wears on. Their is also volatility when it comes to the playoff outlook. First place could mean facing a strong East team in the wildcard spot. If that happens the first round matchup could potentially be a lot tougher than a 2nd round matchup.

The last few games I've noticed a strong change in their game. They have a variety of forwards who have improved a couple notches who went from depth players to potential key players.

I think right now they are in evaluation mode. Will a key acquisition launch them into the contending conversation? or will they just be a beneficiary of a weak central division.  They did just outskate and outplay the top 2 teams in the west despite only grabbing 2 of 4 points.

The Tigers have an impact player and stud rookie out of the lineup on long-term injuries.  We will wait and see how this team performs, but come closer to the trade deadline, they may be looking to join the conversation in contending should they not falter leading up to the deadline.


Moose Jaw Warriors
Pre-Season Goal Projection: 293
Current Pace:  332


Pre-Season
I had them listed as a top team. They have a veteran roster with a lot of returning players that can score as well as a potential 1st round NHL draft pick on their back-end.

Expectations 
They have had some injuries early in the season. They have a very weird roster where they don't have a single forward who shoots right handed.

Moose Jaw looks to be one of the front-runners in the Eastern Conference. They may look at adding a right-handed shot up front, as well as a veteran #1 type defenceman that can join Jett Woo on the #1 pairing.

The East is so strong, but the warriors were built for this season. 1st in the East is so important because finishing 2nd means a tough first-round playoff. Anything less than a 3rd round appearance will be considered a disappointment. With swift adding, there is a guarantee that one of these teams will face an early playoff exit.

Prince Albert Raiders
Pre-Season Goal Projection: 234
Current Pace:  222

Pre-Season
I had them listed as an average team that could be volatile. Unlike Edmonton who are going with a pure youth movement, Prince Albert has a few veterans to assist in their youth movement.
Unfortunately for PA their 9th overall pick in the CHL import draft didn't report. It would have made their younger group a lot more powerfull. Prince Albert went into the season with a "developing year" mentality with a strong goal of making the playoffs.

Expectations
They have the toughest schedule in the league. With a developing roster a good season for them would be a wildcard spot. Their roster is interesting as their age groups are slightly unbalanced when it comes to defence vs offence. With defence & goaltending, they have a strong 18yr old class. Up front, they have a strong 17yr old class.  Their defence will peak next season, their offence may not be as strong. The following year their offence may peak, when their defence is not as strong. Going forward I will be keep to keep an eye on that, but I'm wondering if they try flipping one of their 17yr old Dmen, for an equivalent forward to balance things out.

I think they are a tougher team than what their record indicates. They will have a very strong defence and goaltending next season so they will only get better as the season goes on. They will be fighting with Saskatoon for the wildcard spot. While I don't expect them to sell, If someone offers them a good deal for one of their OA forwards they may look at doing so.

Red Deer Rebels
Pre-Season Goal Projection: 247
Current Pace:  219

Pre-Season
I had listed them as a dark horse and an above average team and I feel I would have made the same decision if I had to evaluate them again. They looked to have the makings of a well-balanced roster despite being in a recovery mode from their past memorial cup runs.

Expectations
They have underperformed.  They traded one of their better defencemen(freadrich) for a forward who didn't quite work out and then flipped the forward for a 3rd round pick.  They sold one of their forwards for a 6th round pick, as well as recently released an overage forward.

Sutter is tinkering with their roster trying to create some chemistry this season, but with a small preference for future assets. They have 2 19's that could generate some interest in Zablocki and Hagel, at the deadline. If they sell they will need to buy an OA next year.

A disappointing season, but at this point, making the playoffs would be considered a success. I Imagine the next few weeks will be important in deciding the direction of their team on whether they tinker to make the playoffs and potentially get into round 2, or if they decide to re-balance for the next few seasons.

Not making the playoffs would be considered a disappointment, but there is still a lot of time to turn the season around.

Regina Pats
Pre-Season Goal Projection: 288
Current Pace:  234

Pre-Season
I had them listed as Top Tier Team, only with the expectation that they would add assets for this season. They needed some more top end talent for their memorial cup run.

Expectations
They have struggled and this season is starting to look a little scary for them. They previously had one line producing offence, and have greatly welcomed Nick Henry back into the lineup which has given the pats more of a 2 line punch. Acquiring Cale Fluery was a massive boost on the back-end and the pats should be a little better with those 2 integrating back into the team.

They just received some bad news that Austin Wagner will not return. They were likely waiting for his return before deciding on how to upgrade. A Wagner return meant they could sell sloboshan and get a discount on another impact forward. Now they will need to reach into the depths of their cupboards and will likely be forced to empty the tank to acquire some more scoring punch.

I feel the pats need at least 2 more scoring forwards, they need a bit of a shakeup and more skill up front. Even though they have a guaranteed memorial cup spot, the pats probably hate the fact that Moose Jaw, Brandon, and Swift Current are very strong hockey clubs.

This has the makings for either:  A movie type ending (playing through some incredibly tough adversity). Or back to back disappointing finishes, and a "what the hell" just happened outlook.

I am rooting for them a little, just as long as that doesn't mean them ending the Tigers season, should they meet. I just have a bad feeling about how they spent their assets the last couple seasons. It's like they freely overpaid knowing they were rich, then suddenly when it came time to pay the bill they were unexpectedly shortchanged.


Saskatoon Blades
Pre-Season Goal Projection: 256
Current Pace:  238

Pre-Season
I had listed them as average, with an ageing roster of lesser skilled players. They have re-balanced a small amount and removed a couple older players.  I felt a successful year would be getting a wildcard position.

Future Thoughts
This is the last "flush year" Next year in accordance to a proper recovery we should see them compete for a regular playoff spot, but they did mix up and match their draft picks more than any other team I've ever seen, and I'm highly uncertain and feel their path the next few seasons may be volatile.

From what I've seen they started the season very slow, but have put up a near .500 record since. Saskatoon has been very inconsistent with their play, as they have beaten Moose Jaw, Brandon, and Swift Current. The massey ratings list them as having the 2nd toughest schedule in the whl.

While they are currently on the outside looking in with the playoff picture, they are in the conversation when it comes to the last couple wildcard spots.  They may be tempted to upgrade to make the playoffs as it has been a while and their fans are unhappy.  Perhaps a team like Regina comes calling for one of their OA's and sends Sloboshan back to the Blades.

I think the Blades made all those moves with the intention of making some playoff noise a year earlier. If someone comes calling about their OA's they should be in that conversation and look to upgrade for the future because there isn't a lot of hope for this season.

I look forward to watching their roster play out to see what all those trades ended up doing.  A successfull year would be making the playoffs or recouping some big assets. Not recouping assets and missing the playoffs doesn't do anything for them.


Swift Current Broncos

Pre-Season Goal Projection: 260
Current Pace:  302

Pre-Season
I had them listed as Above Average and a potential Dark Horse. At that point, they had an Incredible top line and great defensive depth. (since added an OA goalie)

I was questioning their overall depth at forward which is why I didn't list them as a potential contender....

Future Thoughts
We knew their top line was good, but their top line has some of the most amazing chemistry I've ever seen. Tyler Steenbergen has scored 31% of the Bronco's goals. Gawdin has a lot of offensive skill, and Heponiemi is a great visionary/playmaker that complements both players. Together those 3 have 68% of the Broncos goal totals.

Their experience on the back-end has them sitting with the 2nd best Goals Against Average in the League. Their issue was that they had virtually no secondary scoring; however, they recently made a blockbuster deal and acquired 2 impact forwards who have played together in Calgary.

Going forward, yeesh. Nobody has been able to stop their top line, and they just added the makings of a 2nd 1st line. They just need a better PK unit and this team looks really good. With the quality of talent they hav acquired, anything less than a 3rd round appearance would be considered a disappointment.  They may still look at add another defenceman to play in their top 4.
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Surprises
Swift Current - I'd list swift as a half surprise. We knew they'd be above average, but their top line has fueled an attempt to "go for it" and are now contenders and potential favourites. There is talk they are looking to upgrade a defenceman to solidify their top 4 joining Khaira, Sissons, and Minulin.

Brandon - Imagine where they would be if Nolan Patrick was in their lineup? I feel that I was a bit dumb in "under-estimating them". They had favourable draft positions, but I under-estimated some of the skill in their lineup because of their disappointing season last year and felt the loss of Nolan Patrick would further put them into average territory.

Red Deer - I apparently vastly over-estimated them, but If I had to do everything over again, I would probably still list them as above average. I feel they have underperformed, and that has prompted them to make some moves. They lost some key scoring from the previous year, but they looked to have a roster with potential for a good deal of improvement from their forwards. Although I didn't have a good read on their defensive capabilities, I went with their fans opinions of having a strong defensive group highlighted with A-list prospect Alexander Alexeyev, which hasn't been as strong as expected.


Lethbridge - I'm not completely ready to list them here yet. I felt their defence and goaltending would be their strong suit and power them to a 2nd place finish in the central. They did have an unexpected loss from Brennan Mennell.  There is lots of time for them to rebound. Since the Central is so weak, Lethbridge may not have decided on which route to take. They have some players whom other teams may inquire about.  If their is such a thing as an easy entrance into the 2nd round of the WHL Playoffs, Lethbridge is a candidate for that spot.


Most Improved 
Swift Current
Kootenay Ice
Brandon

Most Disappointed
Regina
Red Deer


85 comments:

Anonymous said...

I dont think it is our year, would like to see them be sellers.

TigerTurf said...

I haven't made up my mind yet, but I think I might like this team more than I have since the Emerson/Vey duo of 2010-2011
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The Tigers just played all the top teams. While they were only 1-3.... They skated with them all. They looked good against them all. I thought the Tigers easily have could have been 3-1. At no point did I feel there was a sustained competitive advantage for an opposing team, where in years past I felt their defensive structure was not sound enough.

There are also upgrade paths, with Williams, Shaw, and a potential OA.
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Tigers made a change to their defensive structure and are playing much more defensively responsible in their own zone. I don't see 2 defencemen going into the same corner anymore. I don't see players allowed to skate freely in danger zones. Gally was promoted again and the Tigers now have a top 5. I think it has boosted their defensive play

I'm actually a bit shocked and wondering if I'm watching the same team. I want to wait for a few more games and see if their play continues to be solid.

Occasionally they make some old mistakes though. Like Gerlach when he was the last forward back and was out of position and didn't hustle back. As a result, it gave the Warriors a 3 on 2 with 24 seconds left and they won the game off that mistake.
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Jaeger White has looked alright the past few weeks. While at the time I wasn't a fan of him getting thrown into the top 6. He has since paid his dues on the 4th line and showing more confidence with the puck. In Moose Jaw during the third period. Ostir, Haden, and White looked very good together. I wouldn't be surprised to see them play together again.

Moose Jaw kinda was lucky early in the game tonight. 2 Powerplays goals, and a lucky bounce off the backboards, and a lazy play by a tiger not coming back were 4 of their 5 goals.

The Tigers PP didn't click and if they score a goal or two there, it's a different story. On the other Hand, MJ tendy Brody Wilms played very good early in the game, but let in a couple softer ones late.

I felt it was a pretty even game.

Anonymous said...

We are in every game we just can't seem to get that important break or goal at the right time. I don't think this team should sell. I think if we can get one forward who can score some goals that might make a huge difference because right now it just seems we are one goal off. Good teams find ways to win games and right now we are close but can't seem to get the job done.

TigerTurf said...

Exactly. I really hope Shaw is ready after 6 months. Sometimes those injuries take longer.

David Quenneville was not named to Canada's selection camp.
Linus Nassen was not named to Swedens preliminary roster
Max Gerlach was not named to the USA roster

Anonymous said...

IMO, none of the 3 players above have enough of the qualities needed to play at that level. They're good players, but lack in certain areas of their individual games.

Anonymous said...

The three players mentioned have not played well enough this year to garner an invite. With exception of Rassell and rookies no player has played to expectation. That includes Haden Chy and the rest. Some have had periods of great play but not consistent enough. The loss of Shaw has been extremely detrimental to this team. His leadership would have done wonders for this team

Unknown said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Anonymous said...

I wouldn't expect Shaw to be the same player myself and all fans expect him to be. This was a serious injury. Generally, it takes a few months of playing to get back into form. Both for mental and physical standpoint. There are some guys it doesn't bother. That's the exception, not the rule. Others, it takes an entire season for them to be back where they were.

Anonymous said...

The Tigers will have no to very little say with the decision regarding Shaw playing. That will be in the hands of the Minnesota Wild and their medical team. If they don't feel he's 100% he won't be in the Tigers lineup.

Anonymous said...

Quenneville wasn't selected for the WJ's boy that's a shock. I can't believe he actually thought he had a shot after all he's a DEFENSEMAN you actually have to be good in your own end. What an epiphany...

Anonymous said...

Mario Ferraro is a terrific player who would I assume got the nod over Quenville.

Interesting too more NCAA players than QMJHL players on the preminarly roster.

Anonymous said...

So negative about Quen. He has a lot of upside. He has a great shot, is great at getting pucks to the net and frankly is an awesome team guy. Not the biggest, not a boring defensive defenceman but would rather have him on my team then someone elses. The right pairing makes him very dangerous.
Why does everyone always have to tear these guys down???

Anonymous said...

Anon 12:08, he probably thought he had a shot because he was invited to the summer camp and the two games vs Russia a few weeks ago. How about you, invite lost in the mail?

Anonymous said...

Lol, Anon 12:08 has big talk for a guy who can probably not skate. Always easy to criticise when you are in the cheap seats. #19 works hard, plays hard, had his strengths and weaknesses. Seems to be working on the weaker points and I hope he continues to improve. Maybe Anon 12:08 could take him onto the ice and show him how it is done #MoneyWhereYourMouthIs

Anonymous said...

Time to give Hollet the net and stop the alternating games. Traded for him to be the number one guy, give it to him.

Anonymous said...

Same for the 3 and 4 lines - packing too many forwards causing a rotation is starting to show as a bad idea in my opinion- with Williams out rite now and returning after Xmas- u got rybinski who has to play 40 games and doing nothing - would it not make sense to have a fourth line that sticks together now and the third line that has to move one player when Williams back - there’s Steele , Anderson and Heathcote that seem to rotate regularly - ?? Pick the best performer and put him on the third line now to be moved to 4 when Williams back - after last nite game Heathcote is the player who is standing out and at least has points - make the lines and keep them togeather and hope for chemistry- rite now it scrambled eggs -anybody got any better ideas ?

Anonymous said...

Im not sure what your point is and I don't mean that in a bad way but I don't understand what your trying to get across. Are you suggesting we sit certain guys, are you suggesting we play heathcote on the 3rd. Your idea is kind of a jumble and I don't understand what your main point is

Anonymous said...

The point I was making is as of rite now there is no set lines 3rd or fourth lines and players are not getting a chance to play as a unit to get a chance to gel - and for Heathcote - I don’t care who plays 3 rd line just pick a guy and at least play a couple games with same lines

Anonymous said...

I agree that lines have been inconsistent but I think that is because they have struggled to score a bit lately. I think they want to find something that works but in general I understand what your getting at. Lines have been very inconsistent lately.

Anonymous said...

Don't agree about the lines being jumbled. Hamblin, Rassell, Ostir- chyzowski, preziuso, Jevne- Haden, gerlach, Rybinski have been the top three lines now for about six games. White centres the 4th line with Heathcote, Steele and Anderson rotating in. Depending on whether they dress six or seven d men one or two of those three dress.

Anonymous said...

Anon 713 ? What were the lines last nite and tonite if u disagree

Anonymous said...

Um reply to 7:13 white has been playing between 2nd and 3rd line for last 8 games leaving the fourth line basically sitting / last game guys were sick so lines were rotated as they were short , a few guys did not return in 3rd , other than that tigers have 2 lines only that stay the same

Anonymous said...

Lovely Tigers draft another "midget" at 5'9' in Danielson. Earth calling Tigers scouting...need SIZE!!!

Anonymous said...

My goodness why do people feel the constant need to complain. The kid is 5'9 at 15 years old. He is still going to grow. He was also a 4th round pick so it's not like there were 6'2 studs waiting to be picked.
Would you rather have had us draft some guy that is 6'3 and not been able to skate.

Anonymous said...

I don’t know if size is what we need as much as certain players who fake falls and dive to not go in the corners , or to get out of being checked , quite a trend I have had to painfully watch most of the year - so how about a guy with b@/$

Anonymous said...

I agree with the size comment (though not meant to critical of any player like Danielson). Clouston is following the same MO as Willie. Draft small, fast, skilled players. But the results have not been nearly as good. I've noticed (especially late in the season, and particularly, the playoffs) our forwards are just too small and are continuously getting pushed off pucks and losing the majority of puck battles in the corners, As this season goes on, seeing the same old story. The team is simply not big enough. Quite frankly, I am sick and tired of it. The Tigers need to have more size. Having half the team under 5'10 or under every year clearly is not working.

Anonymous said...

Yes size is the factor ! I agree I also agree that battles are being lost time and time again by same players . When watching away games on tv - with stop and rewind - things show up more than watching live at the rink - turn overs and being first to the puck sticks out like a soar thumb -funny last I heard they watch video as a tool to get better , but yet same thing over and over

Anonymous said...

Picking up players for the sake of size that have no speed or skill doesn't help either

Anonymous said...

Of course not. But some of the smaller guys on the team now are never going to be mistaken for all-stars. The point was you need to have a mix of different types of players. Guys who have size, decent skating and skills with the puck, but whose main strength is not getting knocked off the puck easily, and who are also able to cycle down low. Of course, you could go on and on about the different strengths and skills that make an effective team. But the point was the type of teams the Tigers have had for the last few years have had do not have the correct mix. Too many of the small, speedy types who can't do the corner work or go into the ugly areas near the crease to get goals. The term for teams with a lot of those types of players are they are a "heavy team to play against". Being a heavy team certainly has not been a team strength for the Tigers in a very long time.

Anonymous said...

Sad game to watch tonight - I have not seen the overall team with less energy and intensity, well, ever... Starting off with a defenseman who took a hooking penalty just by not going hard to touch an iced puck, the game was like watching two different tiers of hockey in the same game. Maybe they all have the flu - although I wouldn't wish illness on any of the players, at least it would be an excuse...

And building on the last couple of comments - yes, the team was absolutely manhandled by the Americans. It seems they lack the size and/or spirit to deal with larger, physical teams. It is time to rebuild for next or the year after. The Tigers might take first in the Central and even luck into a round or two of wins in the playoffs, but unless one or the other goalies carry the whole team, they are not up to playing against most teams outside the division. :(

Unknown said...

If you knew anything you would have know this kid was the leading scorer in Bantam last year and was a steal for the tigers in the 4th round

TigerTurf said...

I agree, their last 2 games were sub par, but I understand the flu bug is running through the dressing room. I don't feel their last 2 outings were an indication of the strength of the team as they are reacting and not forcing the play.
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Nassen's gotta stop reaching for the puck. Reaching and deadening your speed or reaching while changing directions = death for a defenceman. He does that too way too often, he needs to watch some video their are a couple occasions every game.
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Anonymous said...

European players generally get tired in the second half of the Canadian Hockey League, due to the fact they aren't use to the grind, schedule and physical play in Canada. Nassen is clearly showing all these signs in his play and may quite possibly struggle in the second half, however I hope he is able to find another gear and work through it. By reaching for the puck as you say and that's what I'm seeing also, he's likely going to find his butt on the ice a lot or pasted up against the wall.

Most of the defencemen are getting exposed now, as they have been playing high minutes and the bigger teams are now finding their stride. Second half going to be interesting, good thing they're in the central division.

Anonymous said...

Almost time to go for Xmas that likely wears on a kid too.

Anonymous said...

Agreed

TigerTurf said...

I think Nassen is trying a few things, and trying to be a little more aggressive, but he isn't picking good spots.

A player like Matt Konan got away with this when he was here. He would always reach, but was prepared to skate backwards. I was extremely curious to see how his style would play out, and still keep tabs on him, because over-reaching is dangerous.
---

Macpherson - I want to see him become more selectively aggressive. I like a lot of elements in his game, but he is too passive and he isn't pushing himself to become a better player. Physically he needs to get a little stronger. While I love the fact he doesn't take penalties, he needs to be a little tougher to play against by using his long reach to his advantage. Their are games when I think "yeah, this guy is good, he should play top line minutes" then there are games where I go, "hmm the Tigers should look at trading him because he is 19".

I have been disappointed that he hasn't been able to elevate his game and reach a 1st line defensive role. While the 1st line D unit is incredibly tough to play on, I felt based on last seasons Improvements he was on a path to get there. He has always been a 2nd half season type player, I'm hoping that he can assert himself and become a player to watch

Rubins - I like him the most. He is the clear #1 guy on the team, and he has gotten a lot more mobile this year. He does occasionally have poor games, and usually when he does the Tigers as a hole have poorer games.

Quenneville - He is getting away from some of his improvements. There have been a few times lately where there is a forward nearby but he gets a case of "tunellvisionitis", loses focus, and doesn't react quick enough

He Needs a mental reminder to keep scanning his peripherals. His game is soo much stronger when he is constantly aware of his surroundings. When he is lazy, he doesn't scan his peripherals and his breakouts/covering guys becomes sub-par. He is just so much better of a defenceman when his mind is actively scanning the entire ice-surface. I've noticed a slowdown from him since the WHL/Russia series. I think he needs a break.

Clayton/Craven - I would highly recommend putting a ton of time in the video room. And look at hitting the weight room when you don't play for a couple days. Every time one of the Tiger vets get burned, watch it in slow-motion in the video room to see the move the forward made, as well as how the Tigers body deviated from that invisible line from the centre of the forwards hips to the centre of the goal.

Those two have similar paths of the defenceman of the future. While they aren't getting a ton of minutes, prepare for it. If you're not tired after a game hit the bike. Specifically keep an eye on some of the younger forwards of the opposing teams, because in 2-3 years both of you will be playing against them. Keep your eyes focused on a guy like Rubins on how he keeps his stick active, he doesn't over-reach, and keeps his body on that invisible line from the centre of the forwards hips, to the middle of the net.
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If anything The Tigers lesser play has been the result of chemistry changes with some key guys out of the lineup and having the flu ripping through their dressing room. Also perhaps playing such tough games lately their confidence is probably a notch lower than when they had a better schedule.

Once they can recover and get some guys back into the lineup I expect their game will pick up again.
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Williams Injury Timeline
Nov 7th 6-8 weeks
Nov 14th 6-8 weeks
Nov 21th 6-8 weeks
Nov 28th 6-8 weeks
De 5th 3-4 weeks
Dec 12th 2-3 weeks

Looks like he is progressing for a 1st week of January return.
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Too bad their Christmas break wasn't a week or two earlier. They need it

longtimefan said...

Couple things come to mind reading the 7:42 comment . #1 is wow. #2 is, don't quit your day job.

Anonymous said...

Longtimefan, are you dissing Tigerturf?!? I'm sure most of us very much enjoy and appreciate his analysis - even when he is viewing the Tigs through rosier glasses that the rst of us... If your day job comment is a slam - I'll say what he is probably too classy to - if you don't like the comments, don't come to the site... Jeez!!!

longtimefan said...

So anon 11:51 what your saying is people should follow this blogger like sheep even if his/her comments are way off in left field. Breaking his/her own blog rules by allowing the comments earlier this year on Jaeger White. His latest comment on Macpherson "he isn't pushing himself to become a better player". Really, I'd bet my savings that comment is wrong. The blogger is correct about Williams, looking to return against Vancouver in January or possibly one game earlier.

Anonymous said...

Hey longtime fan... I see Tigerturf has actually changed the posting guidelines - just be respectful and don't swear. Not too hard to do for the contributors on this blog - but don't quit your day job is a high school level remark. Over the past years, you (and the number of us too lazy to make up a name, settling for a quick anonymous post) have had good points as well. I think this team peaked in November - and they'll be in 3rd place by end of the season. But TT's insight gives me a more analytic view of hockey. I'm just a casual fan - who has not played hockey, but I do buy four season tickets every year to cheer (and cowbell) the Tigers on. My point is that this IS, to my knowledge, the only Tigers forum. And readers owe TT some gratitude for hosting and keeping the blog going with his hard work and painstakingly written analysis. Disagreeing is absolutely fine - but my comment was on the "day job".

longtimefan said...

Anon 10:02 I'll agree my "day job" comment was a little offside. The Macpherson remark really pissed me off. This kid came from no where two years ago to even be on this team and last year he may have been the teams most improved player and for this blogger to say he's not pushing himself to be a better player is so out of line with the facts it got my blood boiling.

Like many, I didn't expect much from this team this year. It's a retooling of sorts, not a rebuild. I'm not one of those fans that over rate what they have and at times this blogger and some of the commentary has a tendency to do that. They have some major holes right now, a lot if it because of the young forward group. The center ice position is an area of concern and losing Mason Shaw was a crippling blow for both on ice and leadership. James Hamblin is a guy who works his tail off every game but when he's your number one guy there, it's a problem. Defensively, Rubins is the go to guy but he's really not a true number one. On a real good team he's probably a second pairing guy along with Nassen, Quennville and Macpherson. Goaltending is adequate, I like Hollet although he needs to work on his rebound control which is an area he has problems with. Still don't like the alternating of goalies, actually don't like the fact there is an overage back there.

Overall there's lots to like though. Some good young players and a team that works hard most of the time. This isn't going to be their year but the future looks bright.

Anonymous said...

LTF - I know McPherson's uncle - and I live in Redcliff so I'm a booster for him too. Analysis can be cold - and you've got some great insight too. You and TT are main reasons to check out the site every week.

Lets hope for a win tonight, a decent second half, and a goalie that gets hot enough to win 16 or so in the post season...

Off to Phoenix for x-mas week - so merry Christmas to TT, LTF and the rest of the Tiger fans.

TigerTurf said...

In terms of Macpherson, I agree he's improved a ton and it's awesome to see. I like Macpherson.

I just see a lot of potential in him. He's a solid #2, but He has tools to be a #1. I didn't mean to be cold, but I said similar things about Prezusio and Haden at the start of the season, that they need to push themselves.

With Macpherson there are lots of time's when he wins the battle, but then makes poor outlet decisions which cause turnovers. He is great at defending, but his outlet passes can be rather weak at times.

If he can be more aggressive in either skating the puck out, or reversing direction behind the net, to create better-passing outlets, he could become something more...This is not a diss at all when I say Macpherson needs to push himself, that's largely what I mean.
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For example, while it's not on the highlights, Last night against Red Deer Macpherson gained control of the puck, and made a tiny awkward pass to a forward along the boards which resulted in a turnover. 15 seconds later the Rebels scored a goal.

His first instinct was to stay back defensively, but I want to see him use his speed and break through that first opposing checker, if he has the space to do so. He's gotta push his mental patterns.

In the last 2 seasons he has found new levels during the 2nd half.
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For the Tigers

Last night, their top line was played heavily, and there were instances all over the ice, where not necessarily lazy play, but 2nd efforts weren't attempted, and 3rd efforts weren't there because of fatigue. As a result, they relied more on a systematic offensive approach rather than beating guys 1v1.

Their depth is gone right now, and until they get some healthy bodies back, they are only a .500 team.

longtimefan said...

I was going to add one thing. Since his injury Max Gerlach to me has been a different player. At times he looks disinterested and unwilling to get involved. For this team to have success he needs to pick up his game.

TigerTurf said...

I would agree with that, his game has been a bit lazy lately.

Anonymous said...

It would appear that Duncan McGovern has taken over the starters job in Kootenay and looking at his stats it's hard to believe we kept a 20 year old and never gave him a chance. He has a 2.63 gaa and a .912 save pct.

Unknown said...

While there are no Tigers on this year's World Junior team in Buffalo, there is a member of Team Canada with a Tiger connection --- Drake Batherson.

The last name caught my attention, so looked it up on HockeyDb and Norm Batherson was a member of the 1989-90 Tiger team. Drake is the son of the Tiger alumnus. Norm Batherson never played a game in the NHL, but did play in the AHL and Europe for 13 seasons. He is one of few Tigers from the Maritimes, Sydney Nova Scotia and also played for the Belleville Bulls of the OHL before coming to the Tigers.

Drake plays for the Cape Breton Screaming Eagles and is a 4th round draft choice of the Senators.

Anonymous said...

Yep...and we have a 20 year old back up.

TigerTurf said...

Interesting find Joe. A little before my time, but that is an excellent find!
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McGovern - If Fischer hadn't requested a trade he would likely be here.

Anonymous said...

Good for McGovern, our kids met him and got pictures at the home depot street hockey (nice kid) as for Fischer he refused to sign the kids jersey because in his mind the shinny game was more important- we had to wait :(

Anonymous said...

Interesting seeing the Tigers news article about prospects playing at the Macs tournament. One name that caught my eye who was listed this fall, Damon Agyeman. Scout told me hes undersized but very aggressive, hard nosed player.

Anonymous said...

Where is McPhee, still under the bus.

Anonymous said...

Tigers don't like bigger players

CatFan said...

Did anyone see the obit in the paper for Barry Prins? I am assuming it is the same on that works for the Tigers and is on the radio?

Anonymous said...

No it's his cousin

Anonymous said...

Pretty quiet on here lately. With the trade deadline approaching I'd love to here what people think we should do with the team. I don't expect clouston to do much but I'm interested to see what all the the fans think.

Anonymous said...

Release 20yr old goalie and bring a younger goalie in if we have one

Anonymous said...

Trade a forward and a draft pick or too for a big d man - packing too many forwards rite now jumbling line all the time - get 4 lines that stick togeather- looking ahead at #s not much movement next year really for new draft picks and what picks are still in the tank from previous draft ? Bjorklund will walk in next year any ways ? Any better ideas

Anonymous said...

They won't do anything stand Pat medicine hat

CatFan said...

Build for the next two years. Not too much but maybe trade Gerlach or some other 19 year old for some younger talent.

Anonymous said...

I don't know if you you would get much for Gerlach... Better off to keep him rassell maybe more in demand

Anonymous said...

How good would Cale Makar look in a Tigers uniform.

Anonymous said...

Not happening unfortunately

TigerTurf said...

I'm not a fan that they have 5 Dman who are 19 or older with an OA goaltender and sit 15th in the league in goals against, and 2nd last on the PK. That's not good, and I hope they find a way to change that.
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Next year Both Quenneville/Nassen aren't ready for the Pro's yet. Nonethless due to OA numbers they will loose at least Rubins+ 2 others.
With their young kids such as Clayton, Baker, Craven they can afford to do nothing with an older group, and still dress a decent defensive group next season.


I think unless a team inquires about a player like Jevne, or Macpherson they won't do much.

Anonymous said...

I heard Nassen gone for two months?

Anonymous said...

Chat tv said Nassen was 2 weeks but the weekly whl report says 6-8 weeks with an upper body injury. Jevne wasn't in tonight either.

Anonymous said...

Jevnne bs 3 game suspension

CatFan said...

So tired of bad news!!!

Anonymous said...

Well what I have seen is some players want to block shots and back check in hopes of playing 2nd and 3rd lines while guys are out or hurt it’s good to see there a few younger guys for next year

longtimefan said...

Don't think they'll do much at the deadline but with the latest developments with Nassen going down they may look at adding someone on the back end. Personally I would rather have them bring back Trevor Longo or call up Daniel Baker instead of adding someone older but with being down to six healthy bodies they have to do something.

Anonymous said...

Won’t they trade McPhee now that he is no longer here?

Anonymous said...

I'm also hoping they bring Longo back up.

Anonymous said...

Trevor Longo coming back to the team.

Anonymous said...

So tell me what has happen to this team. Even with Shaw gone the Tigers started out not that bad.The last month they look at times disinterested and boring to watch. I'm not expecting them to win every game but i want to leave the rink feeling i got some entertainment out of the money i spent. i remember two games early in the year, Seattle they won against... rough and entertaining, money well spent! The second game against Swift... they lost but once again rough and entertaining, money well spent. The thing about that game is i realized that the Tigers just don't have a sniper.
Now we are less than a week away from trade deadline, i don't see a plan for this year or even the future. Is there guys that are coming up that are going to make this team fun to watch?
I don't see any toughness, when i say toughness i just don't mean fighting. i mean not afraid to block a shot. Or when a opposing team comes down the ice they are aware of certain D man that will make you pay if your coming at them. this team has none of that!
So after all that, i will still end up going and watch ownership sit in the dark in their suite and take my money.

Anonymous said...

You are so right nothing will change

TigerTurf said...

Rassall, gerlach, hamblin, prezusio, jevne, chyzowsi, Ostir, Haden

Fill the 9th spot with white or rybisnki and when everyone is healthy they have a scoring by committee approach. 3 lines that can play against the opponents top 2 lines, which is a big advantage.

When Ostir went down, that significantly shifted how the Tigers scoring by committee approach worked.
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Suddenly you don't have a 3rd line you are comfortable against opponents 2nd lines. They start playing the top 2 lines more and more and the 3rd line gets spot duty when the opponents 3rd line is out.
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Guys aren't throwing checks, getting into shot blocking lanes because its tiring and the top 2 lines are getting more ice time.

There was a play last night where Vancouver scored. Rassell was dead tired, and just put the blinders on a pass in the middle of the ice. If Rassell is well rested he stops that 10/10 times and prevents that goal, but a tired player makes mistakes.
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Opposition teams can now effectively line match and focus on the most dangerous players on the ice.
---

It seems minor with just 1 forward injury, but it affects the Tigers hugely.
Their play right now is because of their injuries, whether you overplay your top lines or give more ice to the 3rd line, its' not as effective as a fully functioning 3 lines that can skate.
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It's why I was thinking they had a dynamic hidden potential earlier in the year. If everyone is healthy, and shaw were to come back.... They have a very strong 3 lines, with a veteran defence....and a scoring punch.

The Tigers defensive skill within all players as a whole is relatively average, but when they have tired forwards, that skill becomes below average. Defenceman start having to make difficult decisions on where to play because forwards are out of position, so they look worse as well.

If everyone becomes healthy they will be a different team, so its unfortunate that they have suffered some longterm injuries.

Anonymous said...

At this point the Tigers need to trade away all of their 20 yr old players and even some of their 19 yr players even it only gets them draft picks because they will still win the crappy Central division regardless even if the team is full of 17 year olds and still lose in the playoffs to the mighty East no matter what. You're better off filling the team full of draft picks than standing pat with this squad and getting nothing. PLEASE SCOUTING DRAFT SOME SIZE!!! This team is full of midget munchkins who get easily pushed around...

Anonymous said...

I agree, i would start moving some 19 year olds now. Rassell is the only good trade bait as a 20, even though i think Rubins is the best D man this year, 20 year import takes two spots... hard to trade.
Also is if Shaw comes back next year which i hope happens, you may be able to take a run, problem there is the lack mean and big Dman. You will not make a run with 17 and 18 year old D. Not saying who but have noticed one of our D Man is very easy to beat wide... he is big but slow. I'm hoping they give Longo some playing time.
One more problem is Clouston, and Ownership, they don't care about going far but just making the playoffs.
Next weeks road trip will be hard on the boys, the Blades are the only team i feel we have a chance to beat, and if they come out hitting i believe we will be done.

Anonymous said...

Last two posters hit the nail on the head. It was fine for half the team to be under 5'10 when Willie was coach because he knew what type of players to draft/trade for. But Clouston has no clue. Every year we are among the smallest teams in the league. But there is no loner firewagon hockey. Just a lot of small guys getting pushed off pucks and unable or unwilling to get to the tough areas in front of the net to score. It was interesting to see the Team Canada Jrs loaded up on big wingers over small crafty players like Phillips in Victoria and it worked better than even team management would have expected.

The D, except for Q, is full of nondescript d-men and one of the oldest D corps in the league. This team has no identity.

Obvious, Tigers will again make the playoffs and again be playoff pretenders with a quick exit. So tired of this routine. Even though the names on the jersey's change, it seems like Groundhog Day. Same kind of team every year; same results.

Anonymous said...

Correct nothing changes and they are happy to draft the smallest team in the league year after year and make the playoffs. No deals on tickets for families or special offers.After 30 years and the team under clouston it's time for a change!

TigerTurf said...

The amount of extra bantam draft picks the central holds (Edmonton, Red Deer, Calgary, even Kootenay has a couple extra) these teams will be dominant teams in 2022-2025.

Josh Anderson went for 2 1st round picks. Their has gotta be multiple teams still looking for a defenceman.

If I'm the Tigers and teams are knocking the door down for Quenneville, the amount they could get for him could be massive.

Anonymous said...

They should move quenville..please do!

Anonymous said...

Thoughts on Jaxon Steele?

TigerTurf said...

nothing on steele, but I haven't watched him play enough to get an understanding of his game, and I don't feel like traversing 60 minutes of gameplay to find the 5 shifts a game he receives.

Best case scenario he follows a path similar to Gary Haden. Worst case follow a path more like Alex Mowbray.

Anonymous said...

Teams are drunk. Lol @ some of the picks and prospects in some of the deals being made. I dunno maybe Clueless Clouston should move some of his 19 yr olds.