Saturday, November 2, 2013

Tiger Stats

Playing around with some stats. Didn't take into account the last game played against Tri-City. Your probably not interested in it, but I'll post it anyway.

Home PP: 13 for 45   =28.9%
Road PP:  5 for 30  =  16.7%

AVG 5 PP/Game at home =    1.4 PP Home Goals A Game
AVG  4.3 PP/Game on Road = .71 PP Road Goals A Game

Conclusion: The Tigers generate a slightly lower amount of powerplays on the road, and their road powerplay is half as efficient as to what they can do at home.

Penalty Kill
HOME PK   7/36   80.6%
AWAY PK   5/24  79.2%

Home AVG PK's: 4
Away AVG PK's: 3.42

Conclusion: The Tigers are more disciplined on the road.  Their penalty kill is consistently average.

5 Game Trending
I created a Goals For, and Goals against Modifier based on the overall teams play of how many goals they score at home and on the road. The Tigers currently score 15% more goals at home. Likewise  the Tigers give up .03% more goals at home than on the road, basically negligible. I also assigned a base modifier on strength of schedule.

The Overall WHL Average is a .549 winning percentage based on extra points generated off of overtime. I applied the scheduler modifier once on each 5 game chunk instead of every game as I didn't take into account the winning percentage of the other team at the time the game was played, and playing 2 .500 teams is different than playing a very good team and a poor team, and how I calculated the modifier is pretty confusing, and it could be calculated a million different way.

Basic Stats No  Modifiers
Games 1-5      GF/Game: 4.4   GA/Game:2
Games 6-10   GF/Game: 3.8   GA/Game:2.4
Games 10-15  GF/Game 3.8   GA/Game: 3.8

Home/Away Modifer
Games 1-5      GF/Game: 4.28   GA/Game:2
Games 6-10   GF/Game: 3.59   GA/Game:2.57
Games 10-15  GF/Game 3.83   GA/Game: 3.81

Home/Away and Strength of Schedule Modifier with other trending stats
Games 1-5      GF: 3.64   GA:2.36    Record 4-1        PP:8/26=30.8% PK17/20=85%
Games 6-10   GF: 3.68   GA:2.50     Record 3-1-1-0 PP5/24=20.8%   PK19/25=75%
Games 10-15  GF: 3.85   GA 3.79    Record 3-2       PP4/20 - 20%      PK 8 /11=72%

Even strength 
Games 1-5: GF:14       GA:7
Games 6-10: GF:14     GA:7
Games 10-15: GF: 15  GA:16

Almost identical Even strength goals. Big difference in goals against even strengt during the last 5 game chunk, more than double.



Interesting that both goalies play very well one day, then ok the next start, and back and forth.I could do a lot more calculations into this, and strength of the oppositions offense is a huge factor not calculated here. I would like to do that calculation but don't have the time today.

But the graph suggests that Wapple had a very strong start and is slowly cooling off over time.. Langhamer had a big up and down start but is slowly trending upwards.

The Tigers are giving up more goals. These numbers suggest with less times shorthanded they are being more cautious defensively but giving up more goals overall. Numbers suggest that they may need to work on their overall defensive game at even strength and be a little more aggressive, while trying to maintain not giving up as many short-handed situations.

Even though the amount of goals scored is similar. Based on the Home/Away and strength of schedule modifier their offense has been slightly improving.

So 16 games in their defensive game even strength which was a strong point hasn't been as strong lately.

While their offense seems fairly consistent, their road power-play has been pretty terrible. They have shown big improvement on their overall discipline, but are still giving up a few too many powerplay goals.


Dan said...

Wow, nothing but impressed with your number crunching! Thanks!
It does seem to demonstrate what, I think, a lot of us suspected defence-wise. Funny, as I think the tigers actually have good defencemen.
I hope the coaches follow your blog and see this! Or send it to them! Who knows, maybe you will be the stats guy for the team by Christmas!
Go tigers go!

Anonymous said...

I actually like looking at stats like this. It would be nice if you could post this kind of information more often!

TigerTurf said...

Thanks based off feedback I'll try to get in another post or three during the season with this kind of info.