Friday, February 26, 2016

Playoff Chances Updated

Last Edit: 10:36 Saturday Feb 27th

Edmonton defeated by Lethbridge, the Tigers won against Brandon.

Edmonton (old:71)   New:70   (Minus 1)

It looks like Edmonton is still playing ok, they have just had some road games and a tougher schedule.  Regina who were struggling as of last post, have since been lit on fire and are only 3 points back of Moose Jaw. They have potential to get out of the wildcard spot.  Regina is too far out of the picture for the Tigers to catch.  Mathematically Regina only needs 4 points in their next 11 games to clinch a spot.

Current Standings 
8th Edmonton - 9 Games Left: 61 Points
9th Tigers - 9 Games Left - 53 Points

Tigers have 9 games remaining with 55 points. Winning all remaining 10 games puts them at 71 points, which is just 1 point more than edmonton's projected win total.

Edmonton's Remaining Games
Edmonton's remaining games are against extremely tough opposition. Red Deer twice, Lethbridge once Calgary Twice, Victoria, MH, Saskatoon, Kootenay

Magic Number
5.5 Edmonton Wins or Tiger Losses will eliminate them from the playoffs. 

Possible, but highly unlikely we'll see playoffs. I'd rather see them loose and get a better Bantam and CHL import picks becaue even if they make the playoffs it's likely they'll be done in 4 games.


CatFan said...

Does anyone honestly think there is a chance of any changes happening in the off-season? It seems the owners will think it's only one year of losing. I'm guessing it would take multiple seasons of not making the playoffs and dropping attendance before anything happens. That or more players asking for trades or not reporting. Any opinions on this?

TigerTurf said...

Their are multiple hockey decisions made in the past few years I disagree with. From line combos to players traded, to ice-time. I understand that teams will have down years in hockey.

Then you realize it's 4 straight years players have publicly demanded trades(in good years and bad), and a few others asked to be moved, and rumours float around saying the coach is hard to deal with. Also IMO the Tigers have under-acheived this year and last. Also their is still no lease on their current building.

As a lifelong Tigers fan, they are sure making it difficult to continue supporting them.

I'm not happy with the status quo.

longtimefan said...

Based on the teams record while Clouston has been head coach I don't think as an owner you make a change. His record before this year has been very good, however, the rumours surrounding the team and his inability to get along with pretty much everyone has to be a concern. If it hasn't already eventually it's going to have an effect on whether or not kids want to come here to play. For that reason alone I would make a change.

Going to disagree with a post in the previous thread where the person said the players had quit on the coaching staff. In the past five games they've come back three times in the third period to win twice, force one into a shootout and last night shut out Swift Current. To me that not the sign of a team that's given up.

Also going to disagree with your statement TT about the team underachieving this year. Going into this year the defence was a huge question mark and is the Achilles heal of the team. No one wins with a defence like we have in any league.

I'm also going to state here now that we as fans should be very concerned as to whether or not there will be hockey in Medicine Hat next
fall. SMG and the Tigers signed a letter of understanding last fall only days before training camp so the team would have a building to play in. SMG signed that deal thinking they were fairly close to a permanent agreement but since then nothing has changed and in my mind "if" there is no change before next fall SMG will deny the Tigers access to the building.

TigerTurf said...

What they have on the roster now I would 100% agree they are not a playoff team.

I feel that with some unorthodix decisions in how they bolstered their lineup last season, as well as the talent they had this year and last, combined with the changes they made the last 2 seasons, altogether they significantly underperformed to what their overall talent level was both this year and last. The decisions last season, and the off-season let them down for this year.

I think clouston is really good at squeezing value out of trades I think his direction is one part good, one part off-keel.. He would do better as an assistant GM who is the trade negotiator, but not the guy making the end decisions.

Every once in a while he does find an "elgin pearce" or "cam lanigan" which is great. He looks for value in players on other teams that could work well for the Tigers for a low cost.

When he makes decisions such as Trading Leier over Doty, outright releasing Rhyse Dieno, Keeping an extra 20 yr old defenceman last season, and then aquiring another defenceman through trade; When defence was a strong point and scoring and size up front was an issue. Using defenceman for faceoffs. Not giving a guy like Rassal 2nd line minutes when he thrived on the top line. Continually using a forward that coughed up the puck on the PP that didn't improve their PP %, The continual plan of staying undersized up front.

WHen the Tigers start to loose these off-keel decisions I thought were wierd, but largely kept quiet because they were winning, start shouting.

I think the biggest thing for me though is not the losing, or the off-keel deals, because really that is just a difference of opinion.

The biggest thing for me is the realization that the environment in the dressing room has become toxic. Winning tends to quiet dissidence, but seeing 4 years straight of players publicly demanding trades, and rumours floating that another higher profile forward doesn't want to come back next season. Perhaps that is why Clouston hired the former younger Tiger kids, so they can be the good cop.

I feel that the WHL should almost get involved in investigating this. Let's also add the SMG thing, and it makes me disapointed in the Tigers organization I used to be extremely proud of.

Anonymous said...

Thanks for the playoff race calculations, TigerTurf... And it's good to see the players rallying for a few wins - the team does show pride on a regular basis - and there is some good skill there. But the coaching is truly the weak link - the team would be decent competitors if they had better coaching. Same as previous comment - Timbit teams show more hustle getting to the bench or clearing a delayed offside. I hope this changes over the remainder of the season. But even armchair coaches would recognize these basics (including the inevitable and predictable drop and rink wide passes that cause the fans to gulp 1/2 the time in fear of a give/ breakaway). That is failure to teach/ coach the basics to kids who have talent and WANT to succeed. The coaching staff need to regroup or something needs to change...

Let's hope they go on a tear and the Oil Kings have tight collars...

CatFan said...

Ty Stanton was on the radio tonight and he raved about his time here in the Hat, including saying what great coaches we had and how much he enjoyed the fans and city. It sometimes makes me wonder if problems are exaggerated because of the work ethic of the players that want out (not always of course). Is the Butcher thing for real or just another stupid rumour? This has been a trying year for the players and it can either wreck them or make them want it more next year. Adversity will make you tougher in the long run. However, all of the top 10 rated bantam players for this year's draft are 5'10 or taller at 15 years old. Surely we will pick at least 1 forward with size as we get pushed off the puck way too often. On a positive note, I love, love, love Nick Schneider!! 50 stops tonight and he doesn't get a star, I guess that's just another day at the office for him!

Anonymous said...

I think the butcher rumor was from a disgruntled Sanford. but if butcher did want out I would wish him the best he works soooooo hard and never pouted when he was on the 2nd or 3rd line. I also think mowbrey and rassell deserve the best such great attitudes and work ethic they both deserve top 6 time!!!!

TigerTurf said...

I'm glad to see schneider improve so much during this season. It bodes well for the next couple years.

I'm not quite sure I'f I'm overacting or not. I have heard differing opinions from people more in the know that I am. I do hope that the demands for trades stop happening because it only gives a voice to the otherside. I still think a change should happen.

Anonymous said...

Saskatoon can still hit 74 points, and eliminate both these teams, they are also on a 5 game winning streak. They more then likely have a better chance then the tigers.

TigerTurf said...

To that Funny poster who left a funny message I deleted:
My 3 were Hunt, stanton, Sanford.

I've commented back in early December that schneider playing better because he was higher in the crease,your 3 months late. He is also way more agressive, and his lateral movements has improved tenfold, so yes I'd say he has improved quite a bit.

Anonymous said...

I don't believe in the Butcher rumor or any other want out rumors. If players wanted out then why didn't Stanton run before the trade deadline? Whiney baby wanted out for one reason only himself cause he was not a team player/captain & it showed with the numerous penalties that he took after Cox got traded. Cause no one was there to feed/work for the puck for him to score. There are numerous WHL teams that have coach/gm position shared by one person. There is also one other WHL team that has 2 assistants that are previous players for that team. Lets shoot the puck more & do the systems that the coaches suggest. Best 3 overages should of been Cox, Stanton & Hunt.

Anonymous said...

Anon 3:44, give your head a shake. I would love to hear what level of hockey you managed to reach? A player wanting out of an organization is a normal process. You are right, him wanting out of the organization was a decision to help HIS hockey career. Being an undrafted 20 year old, truly is the last kick at the can. Why would he want to stay on a sinking ship? Give the kid credit for speaking up, and looking after his best interest. Shoot the puck more? You realize this is a tight, shot blocking league.. right? Probably not, just based on your comment. I played in the league against most of the players everyone trash talks. I have not heard one good thing about your coach and gm, and only if you could hear what goes on behind closed doors, you would not believe it. Every coach has an expiry date, and for the sake of the players mental state, I hope it is soon.

Anonymous said...

Jaxon Steele has won the 2015-16 AMMHL Scoring title with 87 points in 37 games. He is listed by Medicine Hat. 6 feet tall but very skinny.