Friday, February 26, 2016

Playoff Chances Updated

Last Edit: 10:36 Saturday Feb 27th

Edmonton defeated by Lethbridge, the Tigers won against Brandon.

Edmonton (old:71)   New:70   (Minus 1)

It looks like Edmonton is still playing ok, they have just had some road games and a tougher schedule.  Regina who were struggling as of last post, have since been lit on fire and are only 3 points back of Moose Jaw. They have potential to get out of the wildcard spot.  Regina is too far out of the picture for the Tigers to catch.  Mathematically Regina only needs 4 points in their next 11 games to clinch a spot.

Current Standings 
8th Edmonton - 9 Games Left: 61 Points
9th Tigers - 9 Games Left - 53 Points

Tigers have 9 games remaining with 55 points. Winning all remaining 10 games puts them at 71 points, which is just 1 point more than edmonton's projected win total.

Edmonton's Remaining Games
Edmonton's remaining games are against extremely tough opposition. Red Deer twice, Lethbridge once Calgary Twice, Victoria, MH, Saskatoon, Kootenay

Magic Number
5.5 Edmonton Wins or Tiger Losses will eliminate them from the playoffs. 

Possible, but highly unlikely we'll see playoffs. I'd rather see them loose and get a better Bantam and CHL import picks becaue even if they make the playoffs it's likely they'll be done in 4 games.

Wednesday, February 3, 2016

Playoff Chances Slipping Away

Losing Skid & Playoff Chances
Tigers have only managed 2 wins in their past 8 games and that has put them in a tough spot to make the playoffs.

Regina & Edmonton Estimation
If we estimate Edmonton and Regina playing .500 hockey the rest of the way. They would both end up with 71 points each. I think this is a very fair estimate.  Their current records are .490. (Edmonton playing strong, Regina with a lot of Home Games.)

Regina has been slipping lately, but edmonton has been playing pretty strong. Realistically Regina is tracking more towards the 67-68 point range.

Tigers Situation
The Tigers sit at 44 points currently. The First Tiebreaker is wins except the last playoff spot is a tiebreaker 1 game take all so we will add a point as insurance.

 72-44 = 28 points Needed
20 games left = 28/40 = .700 Winning Percentage or
14 wins in next 20 games ( Assuming REG,EDM win at .500)

If Edmonton or Regina falters at a .350 rate.
65-44=  21/40
10.5 wins in next 20 games

Friday Night in Regina
This is a must-win game for the Tigers.  A loss will put them on the brink of not returning. A loss means they need 30 points in 19 games or a .789 Winning percentage providing regina or Edmonton stays at a .500 rate.

The Tigers are entering territory of relying on another team to falter to make the playoffs which is dangerous territory.  If Regina or Edmonton doesn't falter the Tigers need to win @ a .700 rate. which is essentially pulling a rabbit out of the net at this point in the season.

The Tigers have made the playoffs for 13 consecutive years. Failing to make it out of the first round only once.