Goats & Hero's

TigerTurf's HeroTeams of the Year

Prince Albert

Edmonton

HM:  Calgary, Moose Jaw

Tiger Turf's Goats of the Year

Lethbridge

Kootenay

HM: Brandon

Heroes

1. Prince Albert

Last season Prince Albert had a lineup who's experience levels was slightly split between forwards and defenceman.  They had a group of defenceman who would be maturing this season. They had a group of forwards who were a year away from peaking and had 3 Import forward OA's who wouldn't be available for this season.

In a nutshell, they built up a very strong defensive group and goaltending group and then supplemented their team with OA scorers. They've done this the last couple years. I'm curious to see if this trend starts becoming more dominant in the WHL as Edmonton did it this season as well and both the teams are in the Eastern Conference Final using that strategy.

Last season P.A made a trade deadline deal last year acquiring a 19yr old scorer Kody McDonald and people went huh? That deal was designed to make the playoffs last season as well as an important OA for this season. McDonald was a big presence for P.A last season. They ended up upgrading him after a slow start and trading away veteran role player Carson Miller for PPG forward Dante Hanoun.

In the off-season they also made a strong move acquiring potential OA Noah Gregor from Victoria. Gregor had a pro contract with San Jose. However, San Jose's system was absolutely packed. I feel that utilized some great vision and hockey knowledge to acquire a player most teams probably wouldn't have looked at.  (I"m not sure what they spent on him as the returns were conditional)

They have a good mix of size in their lineup. Their only big weakness is that they rely heavily on Ian Scott as the starter, so hopefully, he can stay healthy through their playoff run. P.A is my Hero #1 Team because They built from the back end up and turned into a dominant team.

2. Edmonton

I am going to refer to the Previous Post about Edmonton located 
http://tigerturf.blogspot.com/2019/04/2018-2019-predictions-review-heroes.html

Honorable Mention

Calgary

Calgary - Again had a very disappointing start. They made a big deal that prompted a big push up the standings trading away Tristen Nielson for James Malm.  They were a very tough team to play against and made it to round 2 in a packed central division.

Moose Jaw
They had a very successful year when many including me thought they would have a down season.

Goats

1. Kootenay Ice

They tossed the towel in early. Cut/traded all their elder players. The Ice made a big blockbuster with Kootenay trading away 2 of their top veteran players to Red Deer. The players coming back were "fillers"

Kootenay also didn't bother picking up the 3rd Overage after dealing away Dallas Hines.  In January they announced they were moving to Winnipeg. 

After reviewing all their moves I feel it was pretty clear they tanked on purpose. The interesting thing is that some of these moves were made before the official announcement of moving to Winnipeg. To me, that is a clear sign this season was a write-off from the get-go. They are my #1 Goat because I feel it isn't in good faith to field a lesser quality team to spur a move to a new city.

2. Lethbridge Hurricanes

Memorial Cup Woes

I feel sorry for them. I largely feel they are a Regina 2.0. A team with a lot of great assets and talent that was blinded by the Memorial Cup.  They ended up splitting their assets between 2 seasons which diluted their overall power.

In my Pre-season predictions, I would have had them as 1st in the Central if they hadn't stated their intentions to bid on the memorial cup as well as some pre-emptive deals.

If they had drafted a couple older Imports, dropped Merehzko and added another 20, they would have just needed a goaltender and they would have had a very good team. They could have still bolstered if they wanted to. 

----

Off-Season & Memorial Cup Bid Failure

In the off-season, they tried to get a year younger trading away Zane Franklin who popped in a PPG pace for Kamloops this year.

When the Hurricanes lost the memorial cup bid they tried to change course. Add some salt to the wounds one of their Import picks was 18yr old Goaltender Akira Schmidt. The Hurricanes cut him after the Tigers lit him up in pre-season as well as his first game of the season.

Schmid finished the year as the Top Goalie in the USHL for the Omaha Lancers with a .926 save percentage. Omaha only had a .500 record this season. (The USHL is like the whl for the US.)

The Hurricanes already had a pretty good offense but made some moves to put themselves over the top. They traded away 2 1st round picks, 3 3rd round picks, 19yr old  Jaden Joseph who put up a PPG pace in Vancouver, and Ty Kolle. They received Jake Leschyshyn and Nick Henry.

If you were to summaries those moves, it was very expensive in essence to only gain 1 PPG player, with a slight upgrade to another. I like the player they acquired, but the boost to performance vs the cost was very risky and I didn't like it.

They made a sub-optimal goaltending move trading away Reece Klassen for Liam Hughes. It was a minor upgrade at best because Hughes didn't have a lot of experience. His numbers were very similar to Klassen's.  6 Games later after a Mediocre start with the Canes Hughes left the whl, leaving the reigns to 17-year-old Carl Tetachuk.

I feel like this is the type of season which gets people fired. To Their GM's credit, he has overperformed the last 2 years on last-minute trade deadline deals that has saved his bacon, but a season like this makes me feel like they are just rolling the dice and hoping to get lucky.

Honorable Mention

Brandon Wheat Kings.

Brandon

Import drafted a goalie and traded away Miskiw for a 5th round pick. Hindsight is 20-20,  Their other Import selection did not come over. Multiple players underperformed. Brandon performed very well at home but had a poor road record. Missing the playoffs when they had high expectations put them here

Neutral - Saskatoon

I wanted to mention them, but I don't categorize them as having a Hero team or Goat.

They definitely improved their team a ton through trades, but it was starting to get a bit expensive.

No 2nd round picks in the next 3 years. No first round pick in 2021.

Made a couple of great deals. Acquiring Brandon Schuldhaus, Gary Haden, Nolan Kneen. The one thing I don't like is that Saskatoon is mostly filled with acquisitions from other teams when they've been in the basement for a number of years. They also added lots in a year where there was a dominant powerhouse in P.A and their team was better suited for the following season

Forwards Average Points per Age Group

Average Points Per Age Group (Forwards) 

Note: This is a competitive Average, subtracting all those forwards who are not full-time players. I want to keep doing this so we can get a great feel for the strength of each age group as time progresses. I used a minimum of 28 games for this season for the reduced 68 game season.


2018-2019 (Min 28 games Played)
20 Yr Olds = 0.93 Pts/Game    (1998)
19 Yr Olds = 0.77 Pts/Game    (1999)
18 Yr Olds = 0.44 Pts/Game    (2000)
17 Yr Olds = 0.40 Pts/Game    (2001)
16 Yr Olds = 0.31 Pts/Game    (2002)


2017-2018 (Min 30 Games Played)
20 Yr Olds = 1.02 Pts/Game     (1997)
19 Yr Olds = 0.76 Pts/Game     (1998)
18 Yr Olds = 0.58 Pts/Game     (1999)   
17 Yr Olds = 0.32 Pts/Game     (2000)
16 Yr Olds = 0.30 Pts/Game     (2001)


2016-2017 (Min 30 Games Played)
20 Yr Olds = 0.882 Pts/Game =   (1996)
19 Yr Olds = 0.763 Pts/Game =    (1997)
18 Yr Olds = 0.610 Pts/Game =    (1998)
17 Yr Olds = 0.421 Pts/Game =    (1999)
16 Yr Olds = 0.226 Pts/Game =    (2000)

Notes:
The forward 2000 group remains a weaker group. The 17's almost outscored the 18yr old group this season. That may lead to some volatility next year as the 2000's will be 19. A Team packed with 19's could potentially be weaker than normal.

Coming Up
I have 2 more blog entries coming up
1. Pre-Season Predictions Review - I will post after the 2nd Round is Completed.
2. Heroes & Goats - Teams that did well, and teams that didn't do so well. Not necessarily based upon standings.)\

After that, it will be quite quiet around here.

Next Season Brief Look

Coming Up
I will post an Eastern Conference review based on my Pre-season predictions once the Eastern Conference Finals have played out.

Here is a brief synopsis of next years team and some questions/decisions that come along with that. Feel free to post your thoughts in the comments

Potential Over-agers

*Logan Christensen - F

**Tyler Prezusio - F

*****James Hamblin - F

**Hayden Ostir - F

Jordan Hollett - G

Notes

I think there are 2 guarantees. Hamblin is a lock and Hollett is likely to be moved unless Sogaard for some reason doesn't come back.

In a potential year where you're gunning for first place, you want your OA's to be Impact players.

Preziuso, Ostir, Christensen
If you're looking for a championship team, everyone besides Hamblin makes me unsure.
There were times in the season I thought Prezusio was on the verge of becoming an impact player, but he pretty much disappeared down the stretch and into the playoffs.

I thought Ostir was poised for a big breakout year but had an exceptionally slow start. For the 2nd year in a row had a big injury and I felt like this season was stagnant because of that.

Christensen has improved quite a bit, but I don't feel he is the ideal fit for a team gunning for first.

OA Direction
The Tigers will likely wait until Training Camp to see who stands out for the rest of their OA group.

As it stands today, in any given year their crop of OA's is fine, but in a year they are gunning for first I only like one of them.  I think a better direction would is to  keep 2 OA Forwards instead of 3 and then swap/acquire a Defenceman with the 3rd OA slot

This would solidify a very impressive Top 4 back-end and let the Tigers use a forward with their Import Selection. This will also let Prezusui and Ostir fight for the last spot which should motivate them to have strong off-seasons. The only caveat is finding that OA Dman

Forwards

Brown Hamblin Kemp
Sillinger Chyzowski  (Prezusio/Ostir)
Lockner  Hopwo  Import Spot
McCarry Steele Anderson

xxx
xxx
*only for depth purposes

**If the Tigers keep both Preziuso/Ostir it generates another forward slot.


Thoughts
They should have an above average core with some decent depth. I am largely unsure about their top end depth.  Everyone not named Hamblin was inconsistent points-wise during the season. Spurts where they looked good and spurts where they went through quiet stretches.

If they are gunning for a first place/championship type season, the inconsistencies make me unsure of what to expect.  This makes me feel unsure that their top end depth may not be good enough for a first-place team.

They do have some players that have potential, but that inconsistency is not necessarily a breakout sign. It is not out of the realm of possibility to see big seasons from players such as Chyzowksi, Brown, Sillinger, Kemp and look back on this and laugh. Yet I see the same potential for a flat season that turns into disappointment.

Defenceman

Cole Clayton Dan Baker

Trevor Longo  XXX(3rd OA slot)
Eric Van Impe Damon Agyeman
Aidan Brook
Ryan Watson

XXX

Thoughts
Tigers should have a very strong Top 3.  Van Impe as an 18 would be a good option on the 2nd line, but for depth purposes in an up season, I'd like to see him play 3rd line minutes and be a call-up to the 2nd line in case injuries happen.

If they can solidify their top 4, along with stellar goaltending this group could be exceptional
If they don't use a 3rd OA slot or Import selection, I'd say they would be slightly above average, but depthwise a little slender.

Goaltenders

Mads Sogaard

Garin Bjorklund

Kaeden Freer-Lane

Thoughts
As long as Mads comes back this group is championship calibre.

Extra Additions
Returns for Jordan Hollett
1 Euro Pick in the first round

(Vasily Podkolzin was a previous import pick, but will likely move up to the AHL/Pro's.) His presence would be a greatly welcomed gift that could bring a huge offensive boost.

In the Import Draft, I could see the Tigers go either way with either a defenceman or forward.  In the scenario I laid out above, the choice would be a forward. However, I could easily see them draft a defenceman for more depth on the back-end and go a different route with their OA's because that works too.

Draft picks
The Tigers also have quite a few extra drafts picks in their cupboard. They have 3 2nd round picks this off-season and an extra 4th round pick. In 2020 they have an extra 1st and 3rd rounder. In 2021 they have an extra 2nd rounder.

Overall Thoughts
I feel like coming into next season I'll be holding my breath. My opinion on whether they should rebalance or "go for it" is walking along a fence line and it largely depends on what they do in the off-season.

Crossing my fingers for a strong return on Hollett, a good Import Pick, and to solidify the backend to make it rock solid. Crossing my fingers that some of these veterans can come out with big breakout seasons next year. If they don't have a good first part of the season, it would be wise to rebalance an ageing roster and build on the extra draft picks.

There have been some big changes to look of the roster. Haden, Williams, Rybinksi are no longer here. Haden's replacement is likely not here as a 20, Rybinski's replacement is a young kid too young to make a big impact. They have acquired Brett Kemp, but still, that's 1 spot down from 3.

A very solid defence can often be a catalyst for breakout seasons offensively. There is a great deal of potential in the Tigers lineup for that. Do they have enough "oomf" in their lineup is the big question?

I'll do a more in-depth look in the off-season when I do an eastern Conference Review.
What are your thoughts for next season?