Normal Expectations
Being completely honest I don't think this losing streak is anything out of the ordinary. You have a team that pretty much lost all their scoring power over the past 2 seasons.
The Covid Cancelled Season
The covid year really put a dent on the Tigers talent as they had numerous overagers expiring and they couldn't get any value from them. This is an area Willie Desjardins is really great at. Recouping those late round draft picks and extracting value.
The covid year also cut short a team that had merit to go on a whl finals run. It was the first time in a long time I had felt that way. Especially as they had laid a beating down on Edmonton late in the season who were the Favorites.
The Covid Shortened Season Last Year
Last season they still had a pretty strong team, but it didn't matter. The season was super short, and their was no playoffs. The Tigers had a split roster of very mature players and a very youthful contingent backing them up. Their were very few trades last season so it was basically a poor year to have an older core.
One of the Few teams who suffered Worse than the Tigers.
Edmonton is also a team that has suffered a lot because of Covid. They had been basement dwellers and had been recovering with 4 of 5 seasons of missing the playoffs. The past 3 seasons and this season was their prime. They lost out to a Dominant PA team in their first Up season. Then Covid basically cancelled their last 2 seasons. This could be their last shot before their "up" cycle runs out of juice for championship contenders...*This part was written before their last big trade**
If we compare their current roster to the Tigers roster; 12 of 15 Edmonton forwards are 18 or older. Half of them are 19 or older. When you have a core of 19's playing against a core of 17's, it's too much of a gap.
Medicine Hat - Young Team
8 of their 14 forwards are 17 or younger. Three of their 18 yr olds had a combined 15 points in the WHL prior to the season starting. They have one 19yr old forward. They have 2 OA's who have scored half their goals and 1 of them is out week to week with an injury and the other is not playing against Winnipeg Ice tonight.
It's simple math why they are on the losing streak. By their numbers they should be last or near the bottom of the league. In a league where experienced mature players dominate, it's simply not their turn. A successful season is making the playoffs. The thing about Willie Desjardins teams is that they are always 100% better going into the playoffs than they are during the season, but they literally have a roster than is a non playoff contention type roster. I'll talk more about this down below...
Going Forward
Come Trade Deadline Time it's possible we see some movement. Lukas Svejkovsky could be an attractive Overager should a team need some veteran scoring. He would demand a 1st rounder Plus extra's. If their is demand for Overage scoring we possibly might see Hopwo generate some interest. I think he may be less likely to go but it's a possibility.
Season Progress
Typical progress of an above average core player is often something akin to 0.5-0.2ppg as a 16 year old. 0.2-.4ppg as a 17 year old. 0.4-0.65 as an 18 year old. .7-1ppg as a 19. 1ppg+ as a 20.
As the Tiger forward core is 16 and 17 their numbers are in line with that. It also means their scoring isn't as high as it's been the past few years.
Positive Progress
Tyler MaKenzie has quintupled his point production going from 2 points in 19 games to 10 points in 17 games as a 17 year old.
Ashton Ferster(18) has roughly a .5ppg pace after going pointless in 10 games last season.
Oasiz Wiesblatt(17) is up .15ppg to a .37ppg pace as a 17 year old.
Teague Patton(18) has doubled his goal totals from last season. (Current .26ppg pace)
Cayden Glover(17) has tripled last seasons 1 point in 15 games to 3 points in 10 games. (.3ppg)
Tigers have a 16 year old defenseman who's played 30 whl games already. His plus minus of +1 this season is very solid when you factor in the Tigers as a whole are -26 at the time of writing this.
Their Import defenceman Bogdan Hodass and Gleb Ivanov have some skill and they could both be around next season.
Their are some players who have had their production drop off including Dru Krebs and Oren Shtrom, but they also do not have the supporting cast they were playing with the previous season.Shtrom has had some minor Injury issues as well as he has only appeared in 16 of 21 games. Krebs in the few games I watched had a weird game where He was terrible for the first half, but played well the second half. To be honest though, the 18year old season is usually the toughest season for players. It's filled with ups and down so that is a bit normal.
My Armchair Thoughts
I haven't watched the Tigers very much and when I turned on the webcast I was expecting a team that was losing battles and in general slower team speed, but that isn't what I saw against Winnipeg even though they were down big in the game.
It's obvious their is some skill in the Tigers lineup. They win lots of small battles a LOT more than I expected facing the top team in the league. They were trying and skating hard. They also make some nice outlet plays out of their zone. Speed or skill isn't their issue, experience is.
Their finish around the net seemed "panicked' or "youthfull" What I mean by that is it looked like they would run out of ideas at the net. Like they had to be perfect in order to score. Looking for a lot of cross icepasses with 3 defenders in the way.
Last minute shots that would miss the net or passes that went to nobody in prime scoring areas of the slot. A sign of youth. A feeling they need to be perfect to score goals or rushed opportunities.
I saw One Main Issue
Their biggest flaw is their defensive positioning in the offensive zone. What I mean by that is....When a defenceman would pinch, covering by a forward was an afterthought. Their was also quite a few instances where their forwards were on the wrong side of the puck.
The Tigers cycle in the offensive zone created a lot of pressure, but Eventually it would break down. Pretty routinely 2 forwards would be caught deep and flat footed. When Winnipeg won a battle it would be out from a scrum of 2 Tigers deep in the zone flat footed and it would result in Winnipeg coming out full speed with the control of the Neutral zone. That puts a ton of pressure on the Tigers defenceman.
I actually felt that the Tigers won more small battles, but with the winnipeg game speed routinely caught the Tigers with their pants down after a simple outlet pass as described above.
I feel like if they can be on the right side of the puck more often in the offensive zone it will help them. When they loose a battle it will be much harder for the opponent to skate out easily with speed.
Still they are youthful and I don't expect much. Honestly I'm not expecting much from them.
I also find it kinda funny about some fans who post things on facebook. This season was super obvious to me and really anyone who understand anything at all about how the WHL works. I hope the players concentrate on having fun and learning. They arne't supposed to do well this season and making the playoffs will be considered a success.
