Projections

A little math today.

Projected points based on winning percentage)
Saskatoon=113.5
Red Deer=103.4
Medicine Hat=96
Kootenay=93.7
Moose Jaw=88.2
Edmonton=70.6


First place is extremely unlikely. The Tigers would have to go virtually undefeated for the rest of the season for a shot at first, and even then Saskatoon would have to drop pace a little.


Red Deer projects 7 points ahead of the Tigers. The Tigers play Red Deer 3 times. If Red Deer keeps their current pace the Tigers would need an .833 record or 35 of 42 points to earn second place. Second place is still possible but fading very quickly. Red Deer has been red-hot lately the Tigers will be in tough, Although 3 outright victories in head to head matches would put them almost even.

The Tigers project to end in third place 2 points ahead of Kootenay. The Tigers have 1 meeting left against the Ice. A 2 point span is one game. 3rd and 4th could be a coin flip between the Tigers and Ice if they keep relative equal pace..


The warriors Project at 88 points. 8 points behind the Tigers. If moose Jaw kept at their current pace. The Tigers would only need 20 of 42 points or a .476 record to keep ahead of them. If the warriors get hot they could make it a 3 way for the last 2 Home Ice playoff spots.

Edmonton Projects at 70.6 points. If the Tigers keep their current pace, Edmonton wouldn't be able to catch the Tigers. I would put 6th or lower as extremely unlikely. The Tigers would have to fall off the map, then the table.

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Compared to last year at 51 games the Tigers had 64 points, so they are 4 points head of last years pace. Last year at this time the Tigers were starting to fall behind the elite teams. This year I would put the Tigers as half a step behind the top teams. I'm eager to see what the new defenceman can do for the Tigers after he is fully integrated into the lineup.