Trade Deadline - 7 Team Summaries

Well The Tigers were pretty quiet. They picked up a 2nd line Dman, as well as a goaltender on the cheap earlier in the week.

Tigers Acquisitions
I am a bit disappointed they didn't go out and pick up a #1 Dman. They did address their goal-tending need and helped their defensive need, but will it be enough?  I guess time will tell.

Trade Deadline Deals
I'm going to do a brief synopsis from teams who choose to "go for it" or add pieces to the puzzle, and why they did so,  as well as lay out a foundation to how this will effect them for the next few seasons.

Notes
An average team acquires 3 core players through the draft each year.  Players when their younger, play 3rd/4th line minutes but start making impacts into the lineup when their 18,19,20 and become key pieces of the team.

Above average or championship teams usually acquire or recruit 4 or 5 core to key players in at least 2 consecutive years in a row. When that age group matures that becomes 8-10 core/key players that are supplemented with 3 overage players, 2 imports, as well as trade deadline acquisitions that push teams over the top and give them more depth in case of injuries.

Draft Picks
5 Years ago I did an evaluation of draft Picks.
1st Rounder = 98-99% chance of a core player or better
2nd Rounder = 50-50 Chance of a Core player or better
3rd Rounder = 15% chance or a core player or better
4th rounder = 3% chance of a core player or better
5th Rounder = 2.5% chance of a core player or better
After that it is a relative crapshoot.
Goalies were highly volatile, Their are many 1st/2nd round picks that don't turn out.

Now these values are likely outdated, and I don't remember my methods, so if you're a math based person sorry I can't replicate this...yeah I know don't trust it.

Summary of Major Acquisitions
P = denotes prospect

Prince George
Gone:
Tyler Ho(16P), 
Yan Khomenko(18), 
Bartek Bison(18), 
Max Martin(17)
Justin Almeida(17) 
Kolby Johnson(18),
1st Rnd ’18, 2nd Rnd ’18,
3rd Rnd ’18, 3rd Rnd ’19
5th Rnd ’17,  
8th Rnd ’18, 

Aquired:
Tanner Wishnowski(19) 
Radovan Bondra(19) Top 6
Nikita Popugaev(18) PPG+(top 6 forward)
Brendan Guhle(19) Top 2 defenceman)

Summary
PG really loaded up for this season acquiring 2 PPG players, and a top line defenceman.
It cost them some of this years depth players, 2 potential core 17's, and significant picks for the 2018 draft

PG essentially sold the 2018 draft class.  In 2017 they will be drafting later in rounds, that will delay their recovery.

If we add the fact that they will loose half their team next season, the next 3-4 seasons will be a big struggle, and they will likely become sellers.

Unless they are able to find some gems and or get extremely luck in the draft, it may take them until  '24-25' before they could potentially ice another championship type team.

PG is a smaller market team. Their past history shows they have longer 6-8 year cycles. A Very interesting question will be Nikita Popugaev,  IF he does return PG should be able to reclaim a ransom next season to help with their recovery process.

I think their an "underdog contender". They have an older roster, a very good record and their future looked a little bleak so I can see why they "went for it".  They are playing in an incredibly tough division. While they should get out of the first round, after that it will be a big battle. They have the team to compete and challenge but rounds 2 through 4 will almost be 50-50 chances. They could make it, but it will be tough.

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Regina Pats
Gone
Lane Zablocki(18)
Dawson Barteaux(16)
Brady Pouteau(19)
Rykr Cole(19)
Riley Woods(18)
Luc Smith (18)
James Hilsendager(19)
Erik Gardiner(17)
1st Rnd ’17
1st Rnd ’18 or 19
3rd Rnd ’20 Conditional

Acquired
Joshua Mahura(18) Top DMAN
Jeff de Wit(19)
Wyatt Sloboshan(19) Probably a top veteran depth player.
Dawson Davidson(18)  Very solid Defenceman
Jonathan Smart(17) Talented young defenceman
3rd Rnd ’19
7th Rnd ’18
3rd Rnd ’17

Summary
Regina has done some incredible drafting and it gave them a full cupboard stocked full of goodies.

 They basically re-tooled their lineup for next season. They traded a combo of some vets, young players and picks to acquire bona fida 18yr players that will be here next season when they host the Memorial Cup, as well as a core group of younger players that should still be with the pats the season after.

They have given away a lot of higher round draft picks for the 2017,2018,2019 draft classes.  IF Tyson Jost reports to them next season from the NCAA they won't have any 1st rounders for the next 3 years.

Even through Regina has loaded up they have 7 (16&17) year old players and some really great prospects. The year after the memorial cup in 19-20, they will still have Jonathon smart, Jake Leschyshyn, nick henry, Jordan Hollett, among a stellar over-age class, proving they aren't leaked to the NHL.

That will be an impressive core group that initially 2 years later seems like they might challenge for a playoff spot after their memorial cup run. The question will be whether they sell and gain royal ransoms or not.

Even though the next 3 drafts have significant higher losses of picks, I would not doubt their ability to bounce back quicker than normal. While it is way to early to see when that would be, the next 2 seasons will be extremely exciting. The pats have potential to become back to back memorial cup champions.

While a memorial cup berth is never a guarantee and adding is never a sure thing, I really like how they have built and developed their team.  They will have a dynamite team next season and an automatic memorial cup berth. They also have a bunch of good younger players that will supplement and possibly be able to help recoup their losses faster after their runs are over with. Their goal-tending looks a little young this year and could be a weakness.

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Kelowna Rockets
Gone:
Jake Kryski(18)
Riley Stadel(20)
Jordan Borstmayer(18)
Jonathan Smart(17)
Tanner Wishnowski(19)
5th Rnd ’17
1st Rnd ’18 Opt
5th Rnd ’19 Cond

Aquired
Reid Gardiner(20)
Carsen Twarynski(19)
James Hilsendager(19)
Erik Gardiner(17)
Colum McGauley(16 P)
3rd Rnd ’18 Cond.
5th Rnd ’18
5th Rnd ’17

Summary

This was a very interesting decision from kelowna to jump into the ring. They aren't that far off from slipping into a wildcard position, but I think I understand why they made these moves.


Dillon Dube has only played in 25% of kelowna's games. With him in the lineup Kelowna was 10-4.  

Kelowna managed to acquire a bona fida goal scorer coming back in Gardiner. They also acquired some size and aggressiveness with the acquisitions of Twarynski and Hilsendager, as well as couple younger players.

Kelowna has an older veteran defence and goaltending. They have an interesting dynamic of younger and older forwards. 

They are 10 games above .500 and this trade deadline will be like acquiring 2 star forwards, a power forward, and an aggressive defenceman. 

I will be interested to see if they can go on a tear the next few weeks. They might have just developed into a pretty powerful team. I wouldn't be surprised to see them challenge for first in the conference even though they are 4-5 games back of PG. They will be the underdog and I wouldn't want to face them in the playoffs, they have a team that could potentially play in the western final, and they did it pretty cheaply.

Kamloops
Gone
Spencer Bast(20)
Conner McDonald(17)
2nd Rnd ’17
5th Rnd ’18
Dawson Davidson(18)
6th Rnd ’18 Cond.

Acquired
8th Rnd ’18 Lane Bauer(20)
7th Rnd ’17
Luc Smith(18)
Nic Holowko(19)

Summary
Kamloops has one of the best goaltenders in the league, and they don't give up very many goals.  Their offense however is just mediocre with a poor PP. Acquiring Bauer and towering forward Luc Smith was an attempt at shoring that area up.

It was an attempt to get a little better, giving up a potential core player and 2nd overall pick, for some veteran forwards, a "little splash" so to say. It doesn't scream championship team, but we will see how they play down the stretch run. They didn't give up anything too substantial, and they shored up some weaknesses. 

They will be in tough as Kelowna got a lot better and victoria is right on their doorstep. It could be possible that these additions aren't enough to overcome a 1st round playoff victory like these trades were made for, nonetheless those trades won't affect their long-term development too much.

They remind me a lot of Lethbridge except their strengths are reversed. They will have some losses of top players next season, but retain a good core group of younger players.
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Lethbridge
Busiest Gm Award. This one makes my head spin.

Gone
Shaun Dosanjh(20)
Brett Davis(17)
Colton Kroeker(19)
Carson Dyck(15 P)
Brady Reagan(19)
Brayden Burke(19)
Shane Farkas(17)
Carter Folk(20)
Darian Skeoch(19)
4th Rnd ’18 Cond.
7th Rnd ’17
6th Rnd ’18
7th Rnd ’17 Cond.
2nd Rnd ’18
4th Rnd ’18
3rd Rnd ’17
3rd Rnd ’18
5th Rnd ’18
7th Rnd ’18

Aquired
Alec Baer(19)
Zak Zborosky(20)
Matt Alfaro(20)
Ryley Lindgren(20)
Kyle Yewchuk(18)
Brady Pouteau(19)
Ryan Bowen(18)
Ty Prefontaine(17)
Brennan Riddle(19)
Ryan Gilchrist(18)
Tanner Nagel(18)
Brennan Menell(19)
4th Rnd ’17
9th Rnd ’17
6th Rnd ’18
2nd Rnd ’17
3rd Rnd ’19 Cond
6th Rnd ’18
4th Rnd ’17

Summary
Lethbridge were pre-season favorites. However they stumbled out of the gate and GM Anholt publicly came out and said their were trouble-makers in the room, and traded away multiple star players which dashed hopes of a contending hockey team.

Their moves they made got them a more age balance roster. They got an extra 2nd round pick earlier in the year and spent it along with 2 older players for upgrades to their 20's, a recovery pick and a prospect goaltender.

Their forward group now looks pretty strong up front. Their defense is quite young and could be taken advantage of. Next year they will loose 4 of their top 5 scorers, but other than that retain a good chunk of core younger players.

The Canes have missed the playoffs for a long time, and last years good team made a disappointing exit in round 1. While they could have just re-loaded fans probably would have revolted as that has been their theme for a longtime.

 Instead they tried to balance their roster as well as making it competitive enough that they could venture into the 2nd or possibly 3rd round of the playoffs.  They have the potential to have a cakewalk in the first round. In round 2 they will be challenged.

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Moose Jaw
Gone
Brayden Watts(17)
Nikita Popugaev(18)
Ryan Bowen(18)
2nd Rnd ’17
3rd Rnd ’19 Cond.
4th Rnd ’18
6th Rnd ’19 Cond
8th Rnd ’18
5th Rnd ’17
2nd Rnd ’18

Acquired
Branden Klatt(18)
Spencer Bast(19)
Thomas Foster(20)
Justin Almeida(17)
Brayden Burke(19)
Yan Khomenk(18)
5th Rnd ’17
2nd Rnd ’18
8th Rnd ’17
5th Rnd ’18

Summary
Moose Jaw has a pretty good team this year. The Popugaev trade is really interesting and a bit confusing on the surface. They had some big additions early in the year and acquired some veteran players, yet traded one of their most dynamic weapons away.

Moose Jaw is playing under Regina's Shadow, as their roster looks like they will have pretty good team next season as well. The only reason that trade makes sense to me is if they feel Popugaev won't be here next season. If he comes back Prince George can then sell him and recoup more than what PG paid for him, so I'm kinda thinking this trade was a big gamble.  

This must be an attempt to get a little better defensively as their team has a rather poor +/- for a 26-10 record. Their competition in the first round also added, so the first round matchup could be a very close battle


Swift Current
Gone
Calvin Spencer(20)
Kade Jensen(19)
Travis Child(19)
Carson Dyck(15P)
Cole Johnson(18)
Tyler Adams(19)
2nd Rnd ’17
4th Rnd ’18 Cond.
3rd Rnd ’18
2nd Rnd ’19
5th Rnd ’18
5th Rnd ’18

Aquired
Jordan Papirny(20)
Jake Hobson(17)
Ryley Lindgren(20)
Mackenzie Wight(17)
Ryan Graham(20)
6th Rnd ’18
7th Rnd ’17
5th Rnd ’18
4th Rnd ’18
9th Rnd ’17

Summary
The broncos traded away their older depth players. In return they acquired a more experienced overage group, as well as a couple prospects, however they did give up some mid round picks, that could negatively affect their 2018 draft and their team 3-4 years down the road. Their later round picks in 2018 will be crucial to come up with late round surprises.

These moves were made in an attempt to be able to beat MJ in round 1 of the playoffs as they are neck and neck with them.

The Broncos could ice a pretty good team next season if they find a goaltender, as their losses will be minimal. Both MJ and swift will be in Regina's Shadow.

Also their Import Draft scouting has been phenomenal.  They have managed to snag some Top quality imports the past few seasons.


My Winners
Kelowna - They became overnight powerhouses for relatively cheap, but are in a very tough division. Still I think they gained a lot of value for a relative cheap cost.

Tough Spots
MJ and Swift are in tough positions with veteran older rosters when a powerhouse Regina is going for CuP runs.

Kamloops is in tough as well. I'm not saying they lost the trades, but their positioning taking into other teams is not ideal for this season and they are middle-men. They retain a pretty good roster but their are other powerhouse teams that will probably surpass them.

Tigers - One of the top offenses in the league, but a very mediocre defence. One of the only offenses capable of keeping up to Regina, but they decided not to add when they had multiple extra draft picks. Regina built for next season it feels like the Tigers missed a pretty big opportunity.

Interesting Notes
Victoria - They decided not to add significant pieces, understanding that their would be a high cost. Their roster looks like they have potential for a pretty good team next season, so they could be winners by simply choosing to wait till next season. 

PG - Would be extremely disappointing if they don't make it past the 3rd round. They kinda did a suicide run this year, and might have affected their team chemistry.

Red Deer - The rebels traded some high impact players that essentially recouped their losses from the past season and their memorial Cup run.

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Tigers Roster Healthy Lineup
Zach Fischer(19) Steven Owre(20)  Chad Butcher(20)
John Dahlstrom(19) Mason Shaw(18) Matt Bradley(19)
Mark Rassall(19) James Hamblin(17) Max Gerlach(18)
Ryan Chyzowski(16) Ryan Jevne(18) Tyler Preziuso(17)
Gary Haden(17)
Josh Williams(15)**

Kristians Rubins(19) Clayton Kirichenko(20)
Ty Schultz(19) Jordan Henderson(19)
David Quennevill(18) Brad Forrest(19)

Dalton Gally(18)
Dylan MacPherson(18)

Nick Schneider(19)
Michael Bullion(19)
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This is still a pretty powerfully offensively minded lineup.
Williams will likely be a callup and could potentially see ice-time after his team is finished for the season.