Blog Comments
The comments exploded on here after Fischer announced he was leaving the team. I took a few days to write this review because I was quite angry and writing comments in anger are usually poorly thought out. This is a long post, but hopefully, you find it interesting.
1. Season Start & The Central Division
2. Junior Hockey Cycle and how the Tigers play into it.
3. Clouston & Desjardins talk
4. Players who have left the Organization
5. The Future of the Tigers
Summary
I'm giving Clouston a B grade Read on to find out why...
Unfortunate Season Start A Blessing in Disguise
I was disappointed in how this season has started with Shaw getting hurt and Fischer requesting a trade. While one was unfortunate, the other might have been prevented.
It has forced the Tigers to play all their players and the young guys are shining through! Darren Kruger Kids such as Ryan Chyzowksi, Dawson Heathcote, Josh Williams, Henry Rybinksi all look like they will be highlight impact players once they reach 18/19. The new Acquisition Hayden Ostir looks like the type of player the Tigers will create massive value from since he has 1-2 more years after this season. The Tigers acquired more points than they gave up, so the Fischer deal despite unfortunate circumstances is a win.
Central Division
This season in the central division no-one stands out. 1st in the central and a banner is up for grabs. I felt the Tigers had a "favorite" shot at that pre-season, but we will wait and see how the loss of Fischer and Shaw impact that. Tigers may still be favorites, just.... in an underdog position compared to the Eastern Division which is exceptionally strong.
The East is so strong that there is a weird weird possibility..... Finishing first in the division might mean playing a team in the East who finished with more points in the regular season. I think in the long-term is it unlikely, but that would be interesting...
The Canes have built up their defensive game as a counter to the Tigers offensive game. Red Deer should also grow stronger as the season progresses.
You could make an argument that this isn't the Tigers year they don't have the team. They have a bunch of younger players, build around them. That question in itself is what most teams dream of. A shot at 1st in the central and potential to be very good in a couple years.
The Junior Hockey Cycle
I think most of you are well aware of the cycle, but for those that don't...
A WHL team drafts players after their 14yr old hockey season. Which means that most players don't make the team for another 2 or 3 years. When they are 18-19 a few years later they turn into impact players. See the chart below for a look at how many points the average WHL Forward earns in their career.
2016-2017
Average Points Per Age Group (Forwards) (Min 30 games played)
16 Yr Olds = 0.226 Pts/Game = 16.2 Pts
17 Yr Olds = 0.421 Pts/Game = 30.3 Pts
18 Yr Olds = 0.610 Pts/Game = 44 Pts
19 Yr Olds = 0.763 Pts/Game = 54.9 Pts
20 Yr Olds = 0.882 Pts/Game = 63.5 Pts
Note: This is the Competitive Average as having a 30 game minimum takes away most players who were cut/released. Last season saw a higher number of points generated. The Total points is based on 72 games played.
The table above shows you, how much an "average" forward will improve points-wise An averagely skilled 16yr old improves 400% by the time he is an OA.
Improvement Curve & The Cycle
The Junior hockey cycle takes 4 years to rebuild( In some cases 5 with traded draft picks).
Championship teams usually have a very strong core of 18 and 19's. In essence 2 very strong drafts/recruitment's back to back. When that core matures at 18/19 they are supplemented with Overagers, Import Draft selections and ideally a few young "up and comers" that are the depth 4th liners.
A year or two after the strong season, most of the stronger players graduate and the team is now full of younger players. As a result, they end up with poor seasons and strong drafts...and the cycle resets.
Now the cycle has changed a little in some organizations. The Tigers are a prime example. Usually, in down or mediocre years, teams strive for balanced age groups so that there isn't a high degree of turn-over every year. The Tigers tend to do this and hope that every couple years they pull out a strong draft and have stronger teams.
Examples of Successful Cycles In the WHL
I could go over many examples. Take the Edmonton Oil Kings of 2011-2012 to 2013-2014. 3 straight WHL Finals appearances can be attributed to 3 very strong drafts in their inauguration years of 08 to 2010. They missed the playoffs in 2 of 3 of those years. Bob Green was at the helm (He was a big part of the Tigers organization and scouting networks when Willie Desjardins was here)
The cycle doesn't guarantee top teams, as you are competing with other teams in the same stages of their own cycles. A team that cycles the right way will have a competitive advantage over teams that have spent a couple bantam draft picks in previous years balancing out their age groups, or adding assets to win an extra playoff round. Great scouting gives you strong teams and the building blocks to develop a winner.
Examples of "The Down Cycle"
It has forced the Tigers to play all their players and the young guys are shining through! Darren Kruger Kids such as Ryan Chyzowksi, Dawson Heathcote, Josh Williams, Henry Rybinksi all look like they will be highlight impact players once they reach 18/19. The new Acquisition Hayden Ostir looks like the type of player the Tigers will create massive value from since he has 1-2 more years after this season. The Tigers acquired more points than they gave up, so the Fischer deal despite unfortunate circumstances is a win.
Central Division
This season in the central division no-one stands out. 1st in the central and a banner is up for grabs. I felt the Tigers had a "favorite" shot at that pre-season, but we will wait and see how the loss of Fischer and Shaw impact that. Tigers may still be favorites, just.... in an underdog position compared to the Eastern Division which is exceptionally strong.
The East is so strong that there is a weird weird possibility..... Finishing first in the division might mean playing a team in the East who finished with more points in the regular season. I think in the long-term is it unlikely, but that would be interesting...
The Canes have built up their defensive game as a counter to the Tigers offensive game. Red Deer should also grow stronger as the season progresses.
You could make an argument that this isn't the Tigers year they don't have the team. They have a bunch of younger players, build around them. That question in itself is what most teams dream of. A shot at 1st in the central and potential to be very good in a couple years.
The Junior Hockey Cycle
I think most of you are well aware of the cycle, but for those that don't...
A WHL team drafts players after their 14yr old hockey season. Which means that most players don't make the team for another 2 or 3 years. When they are 18-19 a few years later they turn into impact players. See the chart below for a look at how many points the average WHL Forward earns in their career.
2016-2017
Average Points Per Age Group (Forwards) (Min 30 games played)
16 Yr Olds = 0.226 Pts/Game = 16.2 Pts
17 Yr Olds = 0.421 Pts/Game = 30.3 Pts
18 Yr Olds = 0.610 Pts/Game = 44 Pts
19 Yr Olds = 0.763 Pts/Game = 54.9 Pts
20 Yr Olds = 0.882 Pts/Game = 63.5 Pts
Note: This is the Competitive Average as having a 30 game minimum takes away most players who were cut/released. Last season saw a higher number of points generated. The Total points is based on 72 games played.
The table above shows you, how much an "average" forward will improve points-wise An averagely skilled 16yr old improves 400% by the time he is an OA.
Improvement Curve & The Cycle
The Junior hockey cycle takes 4 years to rebuild( In some cases 5 with traded draft picks).
Championship teams usually have a very strong core of 18 and 19's. In essence 2 very strong drafts/recruitment's back to back. When that core matures at 18/19 they are supplemented with Overagers, Import Draft selections and ideally a few young "up and comers" that are the depth 4th liners.
A year or two after the strong season, most of the stronger players graduate and the team is now full of younger players. As a result, they end up with poor seasons and strong drafts...and the cycle resets.
Now the cycle has changed a little in some organizations. The Tigers are a prime example. Usually, in down or mediocre years, teams strive for balanced age groups so that there isn't a high degree of turn-over every year. The Tigers tend to do this and hope that every couple years they pull out a strong draft and have stronger teams.
Examples of Successful Cycles In the WHL
I could go over many examples. Take the Edmonton Oil Kings of 2011-2012 to 2013-2014. 3 straight WHL Finals appearances can be attributed to 3 very strong drafts in their inauguration years of 08 to 2010. They missed the playoffs in 2 of 3 of those years. Bob Green was at the helm (He was a big part of the Tigers organization and scouting networks when Willie Desjardins was here)
The cycle doesn't guarantee top teams, as you are competing with other teams in the same stages of their own cycles. A team that cycles the right way will have a competitive advantage over teams that have spent a couple bantam draft picks in previous years balancing out their age groups, or adding assets to win an extra playoff round. Great scouting gives you strong teams and the building blocks to develop a winner.
Examples of "The Down Cycle"
Take the current Saskatoon blades as a prime example. They had some sustained success for a lot of years and eventually, they drained the cupboards for the Memorial Cup run in 2013. Regina is currently going through that process of draining the cupboards for this season.
Now Saskatoon has had a few years of poor seasons since. In reality, they are just taking the long road to recovery. Drafting at 14, then waiting until those players mature takes some time. IMO they screwed up their recovery by trying a statistical value trading approach, and it may take an extra couple seasons before a contender is built, but I won't get into it any further here.
Rick Carrier Willie Desjardins, & The Revamp of the Tigers Organization
There was a really good article that appeared on the Tigers website 5 years ago. They interviewed Rick Carrier who with Willie Desjardins were the founders of the Revamp of the Tigers organization. ( Could add Bob Green in their as well)
In the article Carrier stated he wanted to "blow the team up" but the Masers were some of the folks who reminded him to stay the course. http://tigershockey.com/rick-carriere-joins-edmonton-oilers/
The bad thing about a down cycle. The bad press, the fans are not happy. Winning solves everything, and many shortcuts are taken to achieve that, which wrecks teams championship chances in the long run.
In the Tigers case, they had been in a down cycle for 6 years, so they were not recovering appropriately until Rick Carrier changed things and Willie Desjardins instituted his successful long term vision. Today Sean Clouston has taken over and continued that role.
The "Tigers Cycle"
The Tigers are well aware of the Cycle. When Willie Desjardins was here he had an advantageous situation taking over a team with multiple higher round picks. As such he was able to very quickly turn those cupboards full of China and create a wonderful dining room setup.. hah! His vision and work ethic molded a team that was having difficulties generating a winning culture.
Sean Clouston was a big part of that and took over the reigns as head coach in 2010, and soon after the GM role.
With Willie and Clouston they understand that buying an asset is expensive. They understand that shortcuts hurt a team in the long-run. For an Impact player generally, you need to give up 3 pieces...A good young player, a high draft pick, and a 2nd tier prospect at a minimum.
A lot of the teams in this league buy and sell. There are big pros and cons. If done right this helps their up years by receiving better players, helps their down years being less skilled and a higher draft pick position When unlucky or done wrong, it is disastrous.
The Tigers generally don't take those risks. They have added strong pieces, but only after players have demanded trades, and the long-term cost is minimal. They like their cycle to be an above average line with occasional "up blips".
Adding at the Deadline
2006-2007
One of Willie's best Moves was acquiring Michael Sauer from the Portland Winterhawks. The Tigers were close to championship caliber, but Michael Sauer paired with Russell gave the Tigers a premier 1st line pairing....both made the NHL. The Tigers gave up Patrick Wiercoich and Lee Morrow. Wiercoich went the NCAA route and Morrow only played in 20 games with Portland. A #1/2 Dman for nothing.
To Add or Not To Add
There are 22 teams in the league so it is natural to have multiple teams competing at the same point in their "up cycle" seasons. The Tigers in the last 15 years have not sought out the for 3 type deals with one exception....
Tigers 2015 Season
The Tigers did add in 2015, but only because Hobbs demanded a trade. The Tigers acquired Hunt, Burroughs for Hobbs, a 2nd, and 3rd round picks. The Tigers later shipped Hunt for a 2nd and 3rd round pick. The Tigers basically lost 2.5 years of Hobbs for a half season of Hunt+Burroughs, which is significantly much smaller than a 1 for 3 or 2 for 6 deal. We can also add that Hobbs was a throw in to a previous deal with P.A
The Tigers weakness was an inconsistent and small offence and while they did acquire some help Butcher's production went down and their offence stayed the same. That downside was that the Tigers got beat by the Hitman in 5 games in Round 2 against a team they owned during the regular season. The Tigers also had insane turnover on the back-end and missed the playoffs the following year. It was a relatively smaller risk that failed, but because of that run they ended up with the #6 pick and Josh Williams
WHL Buyers That Failed
There are many cases of buying that end up failing.
2017 - Prince George
2016 - Red Deer Rebels
2015 - Medicine Hat Tigers
2014- Victoria Royals
2013 - Saskatoon Blades, Kootenay Ice
2010 - Brandon Wheat Kings
Buyers That Worked (Won the WHL)
2015 - Kelowna Rockets
2012 - Edmonton Oil Kings
2011 - Kootenay Ice
Neutral
2017- Seattle
2016 - Brandon
2014- Oil Kings
2013 - Portland
2010 - Calgary
* Made small deals/tinkered in their winning years
Past Memorial Cup Champions
2007 Vancouver Giants
2004 Kelowna Rockets
2007 - Vancouver bought Kendal McArdle
2004 - I don't remember, but I don't think the Rockets bought in 2004, I could be wrong.
Note: I define buyer as a team that made a significant deal in the winning year that impacted their future. Giving up something more than a 2nd round pick.
Competitive Advantage
This is just in the last 8 years, but the list of buyers that have failed is long. The list of buyers that worked is short. In short, buying can work, but it is very risky....
Clouston Vs Desjardins
Everybody has a different way of doing things.
Now Saskatoon has had a few years of poor seasons since. In reality, they are just taking the long road to recovery. Drafting at 14, then waiting until those players mature takes some time. IMO they screwed up their recovery by trying a statistical value trading approach, and it may take an extra couple seasons before a contender is built, but I won't get into it any further here.
Rick Carrier Willie Desjardins, & The Revamp of the Tigers Organization
There was a really good article that appeared on the Tigers website 5 years ago. They interviewed Rick Carrier who with Willie Desjardins were the founders of the Revamp of the Tigers organization. ( Could add Bob Green in their as well)
In the article Carrier stated he wanted to "blow the team up" but the Masers were some of the folks who reminded him to stay the course. http://tigershockey.com/rick-carriere-joins-edmonton-oilers/
The bad thing about a down cycle. The bad press, the fans are not happy. Winning solves everything, and many shortcuts are taken to achieve that, which wrecks teams championship chances in the long run.
In the Tigers case, they had been in a down cycle for 6 years, so they were not recovering appropriately until Rick Carrier changed things and Willie Desjardins instituted his successful long term vision. Today Sean Clouston has taken over and continued that role.
The "Tigers Cycle"
The Tigers are well aware of the Cycle. When Willie Desjardins was here he had an advantageous situation taking over a team with multiple higher round picks. As such he was able to very quickly turn those cupboards full of China and create a wonderful dining room setup.. hah! His vision and work ethic molded a team that was having difficulties generating a winning culture.
Sean Clouston was a big part of that and took over the reigns as head coach in 2010, and soon after the GM role.
With Willie and Clouston they understand that buying an asset is expensive. They understand that shortcuts hurt a team in the long-run. For an Impact player generally, you need to give up 3 pieces...A good young player, a high draft pick, and a 2nd tier prospect at a minimum.
A lot of the teams in this league buy and sell. There are big pros and cons. If done right this helps their up years by receiving better players, helps their down years being less skilled and a higher draft pick position When unlucky or done wrong, it is disastrous.
The Tigers generally don't take those risks. They have added strong pieces, but only after players have demanded trades, and the long-term cost is minimal. They like their cycle to be an above average line with occasional "up blips".
Adding at the Deadline
2006-2007
One of Willie's best Moves was acquiring Michael Sauer from the Portland Winterhawks. The Tigers were close to championship caliber, but Michael Sauer paired with Russell gave the Tigers a premier 1st line pairing....both made the NHL. The Tigers gave up Patrick Wiercoich and Lee Morrow. Wiercoich went the NCAA route and Morrow only played in 20 games with Portland. A #1/2 Dman for nothing.
To Add or Not To Add
There are 22 teams in the league so it is natural to have multiple teams competing at the same point in their "up cycle" seasons. The Tigers in the last 15 years have not sought out the for 3 type deals with one exception....
Tigers 2015 Season
The Tigers did add in 2015, but only because Hobbs demanded a trade. The Tigers acquired Hunt, Burroughs for Hobbs, a 2nd, and 3rd round picks. The Tigers later shipped Hunt for a 2nd and 3rd round pick. The Tigers basically lost 2.5 years of Hobbs for a half season of Hunt+Burroughs, which is significantly much smaller than a 1 for 3 or 2 for 6 deal. We can also add that Hobbs was a throw in to a previous deal with P.A
The Tigers weakness was an inconsistent and small offence and while they did acquire some help Butcher's production went down and their offence stayed the same. That downside was that the Tigers got beat by the Hitman in 5 games in Round 2 against a team they owned during the regular season. The Tigers also had insane turnover on the back-end and missed the playoffs the following year. It was a relatively smaller risk that failed, but because of that run they ended up with the #6 pick and Josh Williams
WHL Buyers That Failed
There are many cases of buying that end up failing.
2017 - Prince George
2016 - Red Deer Rebels
2015 - Medicine Hat Tigers
2014- Victoria Royals
2013 - Saskatoon Blades, Kootenay Ice
2010 - Brandon Wheat Kings
Buyers That Worked (Won the WHL)
2015 - Kelowna Rockets
2012 - Edmonton Oil Kings
2011 - Kootenay Ice
Neutral
2017- Seattle
2016 - Brandon
2014- Oil Kings
2013 - Portland
2010 - Calgary
* Made small deals/tinkered in their winning years
Past Memorial Cup Champions
2007 Vancouver Giants
2004 Kelowna Rockets
2007 - Vancouver bought Kendal McArdle
2004 - I don't remember, but I don't think the Rockets bought in 2004, I could be wrong.
Note: I define buyer as a team that made a significant deal in the winning year that impacted their future. Giving up something more than a 2nd round pick.
Competitive Advantage
This is just in the last 8 years, but the list of buyers that have failed is long. The list of buyers that worked is short. In short, buying can work, but it is very risky....
Clouston Vs Desjardins
Everybody has a different way of doing things.
One Difference Between Clouston and Desjardins
Willie gave a depth player a chance to perform and if they weren't capable he gave them a renewed chance on another team and recovered a draft pick. Example players like Brad Forrest, Gary Haden, Tyler Prezuiso might have been moved, for 4th and 5th round picks.
Sean Clouston
Clouston became the Head Coach after Willie Desjardins landed a pro job in 2010. This is Clouston's 8th season as head coach. (Willie D left after his 8th season)
Clouston came in and modified things. Clouston holds onto his depth players. They are the healthy scratches and receive spot duty and lesser ice-time on the 4th lines. The top lines and older players are played much more heavily. Same thing with goaltenders and that could be a big reason why the Tigers have been poor at developing goaltenders lately.
Clouston also preaches his systems pretty heavily, and he keeps commenting on the radio that they demand their players to play a certain way. Players with a high degree of defensive smarts, but not necessarily high mobility and players who play with an edge and high physicality are players that the Tigers don't target.
The Tigers that play a strong north/south game from blueline to blue-line, and the guys who are east/west or physical players sometimes feel it difficult to adapt.
Nonetheless, Clouston recognizes that older players generate more offence.
Why any Owner Would Love The Current System
This is not intent of being anything bad,
Willie gave a depth player a chance to perform and if they weren't capable he gave them a renewed chance on another team and recovered a draft pick. Example players like Brad Forrest, Gary Haden, Tyler Prezuiso might have been moved, for 4th and 5th round picks.
Sean Clouston
Clouston became the Head Coach after Willie Desjardins landed a pro job in 2010. This is Clouston's 8th season as head coach. (Willie D left after his 8th season)
Clouston came in and modified things. Clouston holds onto his depth players. They are the healthy scratches and receive spot duty and lesser ice-time on the 4th lines. The top lines and older players are played much more heavily. Same thing with goaltenders and that could be a big reason why the Tigers have been poor at developing goaltenders lately.
Clouston also preaches his systems pretty heavily, and he keeps commenting on the radio that they demand their players to play a certain way. Players with a high degree of defensive smarts, but not necessarily high mobility and players who play with an edge and high physicality are players that the Tigers don't target.
The Tigers that play a strong north/south game from blueline to blue-line, and the guys who are east/west or physical players sometimes feel it difficult to adapt.
Nonetheless, Clouston recognizes that older players generate more offence.
Why any Owner Would Love The Current System
This is not intent of being anything bad,
The junior hockey cycle....When you have a good team, you have good attendance which means more money. When you have poor teams you get poor attendance which means less money. Business owners hate losing money, they like stable investments. Hockey is cyclical and volatile
Clouston has been a head coach for 7 years,(this is his 8th season). Under Willie & Clouston the Tigers have failed to make the 2nd round of the playoffs only once. That is actually a pretty phenomenal achievement to have a system in place that can provide continual results. The owners also love the stable revenue.
The Masers have owned the team a long time, the Tigers have had good years, they have had bad years.They have lost money, they have made good money. If your a business guy and someone gives you consistent results, consistent attendance, consistent revenue...there is little chance of them altering that pattern as it doesn't make sense to do so. The only danger is not failing to adapt to changing market conditions and the game-changing, which even Bob Ridley mentioned the game seems to change every 5 years.
What the NHL Wants
What the NHL Wants
They want people who know how to win. All one needs to do is look at the coaches who won in the WHL Finals, and realize that every coach who won in the last 5 years( I haven't looked beyond that) left the following year for a pro job.
(Seattle's' Steve Konowalchuk, Brandon's' Kelly McCrimmon, Kelowna Dan Lambert, Edmonton Ryan Huska) There are more, you get the point.
Clouston & Desjardins Coaching Record
(Seattle's' Steve Konowalchuk, Brandon's' Kelly McCrimmon, Kelowna Dan Lambert, Edmonton Ryan Huska) There are more, you get the point.
Clouston & Desjardins Coaching Record
The True .500
.500 Winning Percentage or 72 points is a benchmark that a lot of people use for an average team. However, with the introduction of a point for an overtime loss inflation has occurred. If we take the total amount of points and games into account the true average fluctuates very close to .550 depending on the Amount of OT games in a season.
Clouston's Regular Season Record
294-179-17-14 = .614 Winning percentage.
Plus .064
Clouston's Playoffs
His record is 37 wins, 33 losses = .529.
.029 above the average.
His playoff success is above the average, but half as successful as his regular season play
Compared to Willie Desjardins
Note: Willie coached 3 seasons with no extra OT point.
Regular Season
Wins-L-T-OTL-SOL
333-182-15-28-18 = .631 winning percentage
.100 points above the average
(.531 is the combined estimated .500 with 3 seasons in which there were no points for an OT loss
Playoffs
65-43 = .602 record
.102 points above average.
Willie Desjardins
Just going through that data, it makes you appreciate what we had in Medicine Hat when Desjardins was here. I listened to his radio interview last weekend with Bob Ridley and he mentioned he had some offers to coach in the WHL, but it would be difficult to go anywhere else than the Tigers.
Sean Clouston
These stats show that Clouston has been successful during the regular season and mildly successful in the playoffs. We also see he rides his top line older talent over developing players. So is his coaching creating extra success? or is he just knowledgeable of how to take advantage of the WHL system?
At this point, nothing leads me to believe there is anything special in his coaching, but his long-term vision has led to moderate success in his GM role.
Clouston's Improvements
I have seen improvements over the years. 3-4 years ago the Tigers started activating their 2nd defenceman into the rush. (He took a while to implement that).
The last few years we have seen players behind on the depth charts traded instead of 4th line scratches that may have otherwise ended up demanding trades (McGovern, Fantillo)
Their penalty kills used to be quite passive. Now they are passively aggressive (which is better) Passive kill only works best when you are severely out-skilled. Although Bobby Fox was taken credit for this.
David Quenneville - A little inconsistent at times in the early going, but somebody taught him to be more aware of his defensive surroundings. I would guess that could have come from the Islanders or Fox.
The last 2 seasons the Tigers are playing 3 line combos with spot duty to the 4th line. In years previous there was a heavy emphasis on the top 2 lines.
Clouston's Grade & Overall Ranking
I'm giving him a flat B. He was part of the system for developing consistent winning years and that is awesome. It would be wrong to give him anything less than a B for that.
I cannot give him a higher grade due to players continually leaving the organization and mild success in the playoffs. If we take out the players leaving the organization I would have given him a B+.
It is almost a given in Junior hockey that players asked to be moved. ( I'm sure Willie had players asking for deals as well) The bad thing is that Clouston has overlooked this for a while, and now he has a reputation of someone who has an attitude behind closed doors. Us fans are starting to be highly concerned about what happens in the dressings rooms and every player that now leaves will cause more scrutinization.
He hasn't been able to make a WHL Finals appearance, and his regular season success hasn't yet equaled playoff success. IMO he is weak on teaching defensive skill; however, he excels at teaching North/South mobility, as well as a very solid vision of how to achieve above average teams.
Players leaving & Organizational Issues
The List of players Who have publicly Sat out and Demanded Trades
Jayden Hart - December 2013
Connor Hobbs - November 2014
Spencer Jensen - January 2014
Cole Sanford January 2016
Zach Fischer October 2017
I think it takes a lot for a player to just abandon the team. The first couple players us fans were quite perturbed about players wanting to leave, as we were still used to the Willie Desjardins era.
After the last couple has left, we automatically assume it was the coach.... Junior hockey you need coaches that can connect with the players. It is disturbing that players would rather sit out than chase their dream with the Tigers.
We don't know what goes on in the dressing room. We want medicine hat to hold a high reputation. All we know is that issues are happening.
Winning has a tendency to solve everything, and the Tigers have a high degree of talent coming in. Clouston has a big opportunity for his career if he aspires for a pro job.
Clouston's' Grade
If I would compare Clouston to a hockey player in the pro ranks. I would give him a 1-year AHL deal to see if he is worthy. I'm not ready to offer him a long-term thing because I think he is just a little above average.
He understands how the system works, and his systems work well in the regular season. I'm not ready to call for his firing, I think for the success he has brought here he deserves a couple years to bring this team together but the grip on my leash is a little tighter.
The Future
Lets' leave this on a good note. The Cycle.The roster in 2 years.
In 2 Years
While it is still early I think in 2 years the forward group will be exceptional and goal scoring won't be an issue.
Defensive is still volatile, as there are no new players playing significant roles as of yet. However, they do have a ton of depth and youth. Joel Craven, Trevor Longo, Cole Clayton, Daniel Baker, and Eric Van Impe. The law of odds say at least a couple if not most of them should turn out well, they just need some experience.
Goal-tending is tougher to judge, but they have 2 younger kids in Kaeden Lane, and 1st round pick Garin Brojklund looking to crack the backup job behind Jordan Hollett next season. These 2 will still be relatively young and the Tigers have historically had a tough time developing goalies. I really hope next year that whoever wins the backup role will be given ample time to develop.
Overall the forward group will be ok, defensively we will wait and see how they progress.
Forwards
Rybisnki(18)Chyzowski(19) Heathcote(19)
Ositr(20) Hamblin(20) Williams(18)
Anderson(19) Steele(19) Price(18)
Hopwo(18) McCarry(18) xxx
Defence
Clayton(19) Craven(19)
Longo(19) Baker(18)
Fedyck(18)
Goaltending
Hollet(20)
Lane(18)
Bjorklund(17)
Add 2 imports, and anything else they find in the next 2 years.
Feel free to give me feedback if this was a difficult read or too boring.
.500 Winning Percentage or 72 points is a benchmark that a lot of people use for an average team. However, with the introduction of a point for an overtime loss inflation has occurred. If we take the total amount of points and games into account the true average fluctuates very close to .550 depending on the Amount of OT games in a season.
Clouston's Regular Season Record
294-179-17-14 = .614 Winning percentage.
Plus .064
Clouston's Playoffs
His record is 37 wins, 33 losses = .529.
.029 above the average.
His playoff success is above the average, but half as successful as his regular season play
Compared to Willie Desjardins
Note: Willie coached 3 seasons with no extra OT point.
Regular Season
Wins-L-T-OTL-SOL
333-182-15-28-18 = .631 winning percentage
.100 points above the average
(.531 is the combined estimated .500 with 3 seasons in which there were no points for an OT loss
Playoffs
65-43 = .602 record
.102 points above average.
Willie Desjardins
Just going through that data, it makes you appreciate what we had in Medicine Hat when Desjardins was here. I listened to his radio interview last weekend with Bob Ridley and he mentioned he had some offers to coach in the WHL, but it would be difficult to go anywhere else than the Tigers.
Sean Clouston
These stats show that Clouston has been successful during the regular season and mildly successful in the playoffs. We also see he rides his top line older talent over developing players. So is his coaching creating extra success? or is he just knowledgeable of how to take advantage of the WHL system?
At this point, nothing leads me to believe there is anything special in his coaching, but his long-term vision has led to moderate success in his GM role.
Clouston's Improvements
I have seen improvements over the years. 3-4 years ago the Tigers started activating their 2nd defenceman into the rush. (He took a while to implement that).
The last few years we have seen players behind on the depth charts traded instead of 4th line scratches that may have otherwise ended up demanding trades (McGovern, Fantillo)
Their penalty kills used to be quite passive. Now they are passively aggressive (which is better) Passive kill only works best when you are severely out-skilled. Although Bobby Fox was taken credit for this.
David Quenneville - A little inconsistent at times in the early going, but somebody taught him to be more aware of his defensive surroundings. I would guess that could have come from the Islanders or Fox.
The last 2 seasons the Tigers are playing 3 line combos with spot duty to the 4th line. In years previous there was a heavy emphasis on the top 2 lines.
Clouston's Grade & Overall Ranking
I'm giving him a flat B. He was part of the system for developing consistent winning years and that is awesome. It would be wrong to give him anything less than a B for that.
I cannot give him a higher grade due to players continually leaving the organization and mild success in the playoffs. If we take out the players leaving the organization I would have given him a B+.
It is almost a given in Junior hockey that players asked to be moved. ( I'm sure Willie had players asking for deals as well) The bad thing is that Clouston has overlooked this for a while, and now he has a reputation of someone who has an attitude behind closed doors. Us fans are starting to be highly concerned about what happens in the dressings rooms and every player that now leaves will cause more scrutinization.
He hasn't been able to make a WHL Finals appearance, and his regular season success hasn't yet equaled playoff success. IMO he is weak on teaching defensive skill; however, he excels at teaching North/South mobility, as well as a very solid vision of how to achieve above average teams.
Players leaving & Organizational Issues
The List of players Who have publicly Sat out and Demanded Trades
Jayden Hart - December 2013
Connor Hobbs - November 2014
Spencer Jensen - January 2014
Cole Sanford January 2016
Zach Fischer October 2017
I think it takes a lot for a player to just abandon the team. The first couple players us fans were quite perturbed about players wanting to leave, as we were still used to the Willie Desjardins era.
After the last couple has left, we automatically assume it was the coach.... Junior hockey you need coaches that can connect with the players. It is disturbing that players would rather sit out than chase their dream with the Tigers.
We don't know what goes on in the dressing room. We want medicine hat to hold a high reputation. All we know is that issues are happening.
Winning has a tendency to solve everything, and the Tigers have a high degree of talent coming in. Clouston has a big opportunity for his career if he aspires for a pro job.
Clouston's' Grade
If I would compare Clouston to a hockey player in the pro ranks. I would give him a 1-year AHL deal to see if he is worthy. I'm not ready to offer him a long-term thing because I think he is just a little above average.
He understands how the system works, and his systems work well in the regular season. I'm not ready to call for his firing, I think for the success he has brought here he deserves a couple years to bring this team together but the grip on my leash is a little tighter.
The Future
Lets' leave this on a good note. The Cycle.The roster in 2 years.
In 2 Years
While it is still early I think in 2 years the forward group will be exceptional and goal scoring won't be an issue.
Defensive is still volatile, as there are no new players playing significant roles as of yet. However, they do have a ton of depth and youth. Joel Craven, Trevor Longo, Cole Clayton, Daniel Baker, and Eric Van Impe. The law of odds say at least a couple if not most of them should turn out well, they just need some experience.
Goal-tending is tougher to judge, but they have 2 younger kids in Kaeden Lane, and 1st round pick Garin Brojklund looking to crack the backup job behind Jordan Hollett next season. These 2 will still be relatively young and the Tigers have historically had a tough time developing goalies. I really hope next year that whoever wins the backup role will be given ample time to develop.
Overall the forward group will be ok, defensively we will wait and see how they progress.
Forwards
Rybisnki(18)Chyzowski(19) Heathcote(19)
Ositr(20) Hamblin(20) Williams(18)
Anderson(19) Steele(19) Price(18)
Hopwo(18) McCarry(18) xxx
Defence
Clayton(19) Craven(19)
Longo(19) Baker(18)
Fedyck(18)
Goaltending
Hollet(20)
Lane(18)
Bjorklund(17)
Add 2 imports, and anything else they find in the next 2 years.
Feel free to give me feedback if this was a difficult read or too boring.
