Offense
Ryan Chyzowski(18)(.72/.23) James Hamblin(19)(.91/.68/.06) Ryan Jevne(20)(.68/.39/.15)
Hayden Ostir(19)(.63/.37/.06)Elijah Brown(18)(.6/.2) Josh Williams(17)(.43)
Tyler Preziuso(19)(.5/.31/.17)Gary Haden(19)(.6/.25) Bryan Lockner(18)(.38/.21)
Baxter Anderson(18)(.11)Henry Rybinski(17)(.19)Dawson Heathcote(18)(.19)
*Vasily Podkolzin(17)
Mason Shaw(20)
Notes:
Not including Mason Shaw I count 8 players capable of hitting close to the .8PPG mark or above (Hayden Ostir, James Hamblin, Ryan Jevne, Elijah Brown, Ryan Chyzowski, Gary Haden, Josh Williams).
It gives the Tigers very solid depth and injury protection up front. The Tigers have a scoring by committee approach.
If Highly touted prospect Vasili Podkolzin comes over, and Mason Shaw is sent back their offense could be the most dangerous in the East division. Unfortunately, the fates of those 2 players are out of the Tigers hands.
Vasili Podkolzin is a potential Top 10 pick in next years NHL draft. His Russian rights were recently traded. It is largely unknown if he will come over to Medicine Hat.
Mason Shaw
Mason Shaw - Minnesota has 26 signed forwards at the pro level (plus 1 19y r old). There are 24 Pro spots in the NHL+AHL. 1 of those 26 signed is ECHL caliber and 1 of those is a rare enforcer. If Minnesota is completely healthy it means 2 players not getting ice-time or sent to the ECHL.
Being completely healthy is a rarity and some teams keep an extra player or two while some AHL teams sign their own players independent of their affiliation to the NHL.
If we look at Minnesota players most likely to get cut (20yr olds). 1 of them came from the NCAA and will be playing AHL/NHL. The other comes from Russia.
Shaw is right on the cusp of staying there. I think Minnesota will largely see how training camp plays out and Shaw can play his way on to the team. If their organization as a whole remains healthy, there could be a chance he gets sent back in late October/November.
There was recently a news article that suggests Minnesota has him pegged for the AHL next season. That article goes along with my thoughts that he will be given a shot to make the AHL Club. The Tigers should expect life without him and if he gets sent back it will be a big bonus.
Defence
Dylan MacPherson(20)(.33/.18) David Quenneville(20)(1.1/1.2/.86/.3)
Cole Clayton(18)(.13) Daniel Baker(17)(NA)
Joel Craven(18)(.21) Trevor Longo(18) (.18)
Eric Van Impe(17((N/A)
Dalton Gally(20)
Linus Nassen(20)
Notes:
My line of thinking is that they will keep 2 veteran defenceman to play 1st line minutes and have their abundance of depth fight it out for the 2nd and 3rd pairing. The recent trade of Jaeger White seems to re-affirm that.
They will largely have to wait and see on what happens with David Quenneville. They have a 20yr old Import in Linus Nassen that could very well be sent back from Florida.
If that happens it would pose a logjam of 20's and likely a move being made.
David Quenneville
The Islanders have 8 signed guys in their AHL system. There just isn't room for him up there. He would be playing in the ECHL getting called up for injury replacements. I don't know if the Islanders would choose that path for him or not, it could be possible, but it seems like a poor idea to let a contract sit in the ECHL, when it could slide for another year in junior.
Linus Nassen, and Dylan Macpherson are the other 2 OA's.
Outside their top Line, the Tigers defence has a strong core of youth coming. Last season they all played fewer minutes on the 3rd line/healthy scratched and it was really only Cole Clayton that put up a big respectable and consistent step forward in his game.
Joel Craven and Daniel Baker look like they will take big steps, but they don't have that consistency yet that we saw from Clayton last season. That leaves an opening on their 2nd pairing. (Baker/Craven)
The rest Trevor Longo, Eric Van Impe, Ryden Fedyck, Ryan Watson, among other prospects will fight it out for 3rd pairing and depth minutes.
If I was judging this defence like they were on a team I was unfamiliar with, I'd say they have a strong top line and developing depth. Therefore they should be average to a slight notch above average because of their depth.
Imports
Mads Sogaard G (18)
Vasili Podkolzin F (17) - Top prospect for the 2019 draft
Linus Nassen(20)
Goalies
Jordan Hollett(19)
Mads Sogaard(18)
Gavin Bjorklund (16) 1st round pick in 2017
Kaeden Lane(17)
This is an interesting scenario. Hollett looks to be the starter but there may be up to 3 that are capable for the backup role. The Tigers selection of an Import goaltender looks to be protection for next year having a veteran goalie in case Hollett moves to the pros as a 20. It seems likely that he is in the plans of being the backup goaltender.
Nonetheless goaltending looks to be a strong point.
Other OA& Player Notes
Dalton Gally(20)
Linus Nassen(20) Import
Drafting Outlook
Notes:
Suggests they should be below average with late selections, with a strong 17yr old age group.
However, they have made significant trades boost their 18yr old age group. It would make sense that they are a year off from peaking.
Last Season
.556 Winning Percentage
Offensive Strength Index
262-241 (Without Shaw, Podkolzin, includes Quenneville)
Prognosis
Strong goaltending and strong developing depth. Suggests the Tigers should be on the cusp of making a lot of noise. Looking at the rest of the division I think they have potential to compete for the Division crown with Lethbridge.
Should they get Shaw and Podkolzin into their lineup, they might leapfrog into the favorite role.
If those 2 don't return I'd say they are capable of winning a Home ice Playoff Spot and get 2-3 rounds into the playoffs.
Next Up
Moose Jaw Warriors August 16th.
8 comments:
From what I've heard Podkolzin isn't coming. Let's hope he gets drafted and his team signs him and tells him to come here next year.
In the scenario that both Quenneville and Nassen are in the AHL ( I don't think either is ready but let's pretend). I don't think Gally is good enough to keep as a 20. I'd go out and find a 98 or 99 defensemen to help the young core we have back there.
Would you agree?
Too bad about Podkolzin. From what I hear he may be good enough to play AHL next season. I am crossing my fingers hoping the same thing you are hoping!!
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About Gally....in the scenario above..My answer is maybe and it depends..
I would give Gally the initial shot and see how the season plays out.
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Some of my thoughts I think about when trying to answer this question...
1) Current plan - Tigers are going into the season with expectations to make some noise, but next year is looking good for a "peak up cycle"
I feel a 20yr old Dman on a top team should be a top line calibre defenceman. If we ignore Age Gally projects as more of a 2nd/3rd line guy on a top team. 2nd Line on a good team. If we include his OA status I would prefer some more oomf.
Applying that to the Tigers Lineup.....and taking into consideration the Cost/Benefit factor with future seasons and the current season:
Gally isn't terrible, but may not be ideal for the 1st line. Spending a 5th for an OA Dman will not be a significant upgrade. (it could be a downgrade). In trade we should expect the same quality back (2nd line calibre dman).
Tigers would have to "up to the ante" and give off a 2nd or 3rd round pick, or more, for a legitimate 20yr old upgrade if one is available. That move would conflct with the goal of next season being the "go for it season". I only like spending assets on a "going for it" type seasons or to supplement a future upcycle year.
If we look at a 99 born Dman that could fit where we need him to fit, It's going to be costly and it adds to the OA pool next season(Hamblin, Ostir, haden, Preziuso) and I don't really like that, if next season is the season we are ultimately targetting.
If we come up to Late November and the Tigers offense is deadly, the goaltending is rock solid, but the defence is mediocre. Yes, my thoughts and plans would change. I want to upgrade and the cost makes sense.
If the Tigers are struggling and it's because of the defence. I likely move one of the 99 born forwards in exchange for a 99 born defenceman. I may also tinker and just swap gally to spark some life in an exchange....if another team is willing to participate.
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My answer depends on how the season plays out.
I would agree. I don't think it's worth it to waste a good draft pick on a 20 year old this year but if we could move a 99 forward and maybe even a pick for a 99 dman who we know will be solid and be back as a 20 then I would do it.
I agree I would trade a 99 Forward for a 99 D
Really hoping we see Shaw back, would seem reasonable as he lost a whole year. I also think Quen will likely be returned. I sure hope we see Bjorkland or Lane in a tigers jersey. It is about time we draft a goalie and develop him! I do hope they set Bjorkland up to have every chance of being a young starter. We could use some stability in net!
It sounds like one of the Tigers important scouts jumped over to Lethbridge. Hurricanes announced in a release Gary Carson was added to their scouting staff.
I would love to see Bjorklund get the chance to be the backup and get the chance to face high caliber shooters everyday but it's all going to depend on how good our import is. Really not sure what to expect from him.
In regards to Lane I wonder what happens if he doesn't crack the team. Will he "request a trade" to get a chance to go play somewhere else. With how much goalie depth we have here you would have to assume that he isn't part of the long term plan I wouldn't think.
I am getting tired of losing good players and staff to other teams. Now to lose someone to the Hurricanes is quite the kick in the pants. I have lost all hope of the Masers caring to do anything about the crumbling tigers operations.
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