Season Thoughts

Season over 

I'm not nearly as active as I used to be but this season didn't really matter a whole lot. We knew the Tigers were going to have a down year. We hoped that they could still be competitive, but when Cole Sillinger stuck in the NHL, it made a youthful team even younger.

My thoughts are I really don't care if they win 23 games or 5 this season.  This is not their year. To be honest, neither is next season. They are a full good year of seasoning away before this youth starts maturing.

For this season, It's always nice to win some games and make the playoffs, but with the youth they had on the roster, it just wasn't going to happen. 

Protip: If you know someone that says the Tigers coaching staff is washed up or they won't last long, they are outing themselves as having zero hockey knowledge. Read on to find out why I say that.

Age Is King

 In the WHL age groups are king.  As an example of this, let's look at the WHL leading scorer Arshdeep Bains.  He finished this season with 112 points in 68 games.

 As a 16 year old he had 7 points. As a 17 year old he had 18 points. 

Let me re-iterate that. The WHL scoring leader had 18 points as a 17 year old.

If Red Deer had a whole team full of Arshdeep Bains' they would have been terrible 3 seasons ago. A team full of this type of player would have set records for scoring.  This is something that many WHL GM's don't fully realize, let alone fans. 

What I Care About - Improvements

The Tigers made a couple trades. In total they picked up an extra 1st, 2-2nds 3rd, and Pavel Bocharov.  

When a team is going through a down year, attempting an upgrade and giving away assets is very tempting, but it is also the wrong thing to do for long term success. You are fighting gravity and their is no point in battling it.  Desjardins stayed the course and picked up some improvements. It's a good season in that regards, because buying in a down year is the sole destroyer of future championships. 

More Interesting Stats

I pulled this from a couple years ago when I tracked all points among player age groups. The following shows us how much of a scoring difference their was per age group in 2017-2018. 

2017-2018 (72 game season) Forwards

20 Yr Olds = 1.02 Pts/Game = 73.4 Pts
19 Yr Olds = 0.76 Pts/Game = 54.9 Pts
18 Yr Olds = 0.58 Pts/Game =  41.98 Pts
17 Yr Olds = 0.32 Pts/Game = 23.26 Pts
16 Yr Olds = 0.30 Pts/Game = 21.82 Pts

Lets Remember the current whl scoring leader at 17 years old, had 18 points as a 17 year old in a 72 game season, compared to the 68 games that are played this season. 

Compare The Current Tigers Roster To Average WHL Scoring Stats

Players- AgeGroup - Notes

3 - 20's  (3 players below Pace |1 defenceman) 0% on pace
3 - 19's  (1 goalie, 1 player on pace, 1 slightly below pace) 50% on pace

7 - 18's  (4 players on Pace, 3 players below pace)  50% on pace

6 - 17's    (6 On Pace or above pace)  100% on pace

2 - 16's   (2 full time players Both Above pace)  100% on pace.

Note: Can't really count defenceman for meeting these as it's forward only stats, but I did anyway.

Team Summary and Outlook

We can now clearly see why the Tigers missed the playoffs and why this wasn't unexpected.   Youth equals less scoring.  Older players not meeting WHL Averages equals less scoring. 

 

This shows the strength and potential of the Tigers is in the 17 year old age group and very likely 16 year old age group.  The 18 year old group is split, but by the time that age group is 20, a team can only have 3 of them anyway.

If we count how many players that could potentially double their scoring, it's 11 players. 2+6+3(18year olds) 

This is exciting! 

Next Season Early Thoughts

The sign of a team starting to Emerge is a late season Push. We didn't see that this season.  The Tigers basically return their entire team and everyone is a year older. A safe bet is to place the Tigers on the "border" of the playoffs next season. However, I look to their roster and definitely see a big "surprise" type of potential. 

The 2003 age group is strong on defenceman who will be 19 next season.  They also have a potential overage goaltender. From what I've noticed is that teams that have a strong back-end, but their forwards lack scoring, can still be quite surprising.  If they can get some finish around the net, they can realize some of that "surprise" potential.  

At the surface we see a team who only won 11 games, but in my viewings it was youth and a lack of finish around the net.  When I talk about "surprise" sort of potential, I view that surprise as more of a 4th-5th place finish, rather than bordering the edge of the playoffs. Still they will need a few players to step up scoring wise to get there.

I think they may repick one of their Imports and look to use it for a forward.  A good question is whether to try for an 18 year old who could be back for a 2nd year, or a 19 year old and likely re-pick the following season.