This is a Summary of all the teams/predictions for the upcoming season. The juicy stuff is as the Bottom.
Contents of This Post
1. Links to Individual Teams Predictions
2. Goal Scoring Index
3. Scoring By Age Groups
4. Standing Predictions
5. Conference Predictions
East Division
Brandon Wheat Kings
Saskatoon Blades
Prince Albert Raiders
Moose Jaw Warriors
Regina Pats
Swift Current Broncos
Central Division
Calgary Hitmen
Edmonton Oil Kings
Kootenay Ice
Lethbridge Hurricanes
Medicine Hat Tigers
Red Deer Rebels
Goal Scoring Index
1. Brandon 276-236
2. Saskatoon 277-234
3. Prince Albert 266-235
4. Tigers 262-241
5. Edmonton 254-240
6. Lethbridge 251-248
7. Calgary 240-229*
8. Moose Jaw 240-205
9. Kootenay 221-217
10. Red Deer 231-195
11. Regina Pats 223-190
12. Swift Current 170-144
What This Is
This goal scoring Index guide is more of a generic pre-season guide to compare a teams offense against each other. This is more of a snapshot of a teams offensive strength.
To keep the explanation short, I took into account every player point totals from last season, compared it to the league average for Improvement and applied an improvement co-efficient. I estimated as best I could new 16's, as well as Imports. I divided the total points by 2.6735 (which is how many points each goal generates in the league. I then took out 10% as an injury co-efficient
Not perfect, but I think this will help highlight previous teams that had poor seasons and maybe on the verge of breaking out. For example, it highlights teams like Saskatoon, PA, Edmonton as jumping up considerably. While it downgrades teams Like Lethbridge which I thought initially might be a better team.
Average Points Per Age Group (Forwards) (Min 30 games played)
Note: This is a competitive Average, subtracting all those forwards who are not full-time players. I want to keep doing this so we can get a great feel for the strength of each age group as time progresses. I'm too lazy to do previous seasons.
2017-2018
20 Yr Olds = 1.02 Pts/Game = 73.4 Pts
19 Yr Olds = 0.76 Pts/Game = 54.9 Pts
18 Yr Olds = 0.58 Pts/Game = 41.98 Pts
17 Yr Olds = 0.32 Pts/Game = 23.26 Pts
16 Yr Olds = 0.30 Pts/Game = 21.82 Pts
2016-2017
20 Yr Olds = 0.882 Pts/Game = 63.5 Pts
19 Yr Olds = 0.763 Pts/Game = 54.9 Pts
18 Yr Olds = 0.610 Pts/Game = 44 Pts
17 Yr Olds = 0.421 Pts/Game = 30.3 Pts
16 Yr Olds = 0.226 Pts/Game = 16.2 Pts
Notes
If we look at the numbers the 16yr old age class barely improved going from 16.2 points to 21.82 points. This is a good indicator on why the past NHL draft was very weak, and that the 18yr old class as a whole is rather weak.
If we look at the 16 yr olds from last season, they were almost on par with the 17yr old class. That is an indication that this upcoming NHL draft may see lots of WHL'ers taken and that the 17yr old class may be strong.
Standings Predictions
East Division
1. Brandon
1. Saskatoon
1. Prince Albert
I feel it could be a 3 way battle for the East. There are still lots of questions on each team that could make big lineup differences. I think Prince Albert may be a slow starter, but finish strong.
Wildcards
Moose Jaw
Regina Pats
Will be at the Mercy of the strength of the Central.
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Missing Playoffs
Swift Current
No explanation needed. The New trade rules we can essentially call the Manny Viveiros rules.
Central Division
Note: I'm struggling with this one
1. Medicine Hat
2. Lethbridge
3. Edmonton
3. Calgary
3. Kootenay
I feel that Medicine Hat has much better depth than all 4 teams. Lethbridge has a great top 2 scoring lines, but a few too many "fillers" for my liking. They may be victim to the weak 18yr old class as their bottoms lines have lots of them. I'm unsure about their defence, goaltending could be strong or weak.
They will Tinker, and they have been great at tinkering in the past, which is why I think they could rise up and possibly challenge/beat Medicine Hat.
Edmonton and Calgary have both been improving. Their entire cores are all a year older. They will both be in contention for the 3rd spot. I feel that if they are close enough to the 2nd spot come trade deadline time, they may look at add for cheap.
I don't know what to think of Kootenay. They have a better-balanced lineup. I'm uncertain about their defense and goaltending. I think they could be in the same tier as Calgary and Edmonton.
Missing Playoffs
5. Red Deer
I see Red Deer as the weakest team in the Division.
For Fun Divisional Rankings
1. Brandon (1)- Y
2. Prince Albert (2)
3. Saskatoon (3)
4. Medicine Hat (1) - Y
5. Lethbridge (2)
6. Calgary (3)
7. Edmonton (W1)
8. Kootenay (W2)
9. Moose Jaw
10. Regina
11. Red Deer
12. Swift Current
Round One
Brandon Vs Kootenay - Brandon
Prince Albert Vs Saskatoon - Prince Albert
Medicine Hat vs Edmonton - Medicine Hat
Lethbridge Vs Calgary - Lethbridge
Round Two
Brandon vs Prince Albert - Prince Albert
Medicine Hat vs Lethbridge - Medicine Hat
Round Three
Prince Albert Vs Medicine Hat - Prince Albert
East Rep.
Prince Albert
Can't wait to find out how wrong I am at seasons' end!!
Who do you think will come out on Top??? Name your regular season and Playoff Victors!
Note: Their are a few trades I haven't processed yet on those individual teams
Brandon vs Prince Albert - Prince Albert
Medicine Hat vs Lethbridge - Medicine Hat
Round Three
Prince Albert Vs Medicine Hat - Prince Albert
East Rep.
Prince Albert
Can't wait to find out how wrong I am at seasons' end!!
Who do you think will come out on Top??? Name your regular season and Playoff Victors!
Note: Their are a few trades I haven't processed yet on those individual teams
16 comments:
Great work as always but I have a sense that Red Deer won't be that bad. I think they got some guys who are going to surprise. I think they are top 4 in in the division. I agree that the Tigers have more depth than Lethbridge and Calgary but Lethbride scares me because they got Cozens and Bellerive. I'm hoping we still get one of Shaw or Quennville back so we have a bonafide guy who can put up points like Lethbridge has.
Anythings possible.
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Funny enough earlier I was thinking I might be under-estimating Kootenay.
I look at Red Deer and I think They will have trouble scoring goals. I see they have a ton of listed players in their lineup and I'm curious on how that will work. Sometimes a powerful Defensive group can power and fuel the offence. Red Deer has a couple NHL drafted boys on the back-end and goal-tending looks Ok. I think their overall depth is lacking though which makes me feel like they could struggle.
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Lethbridge will be interesting. Bellerive and Cozens are like a Jagr and Lemieux. Or a Crosby and Malkin. According to the Mock Draft site, which compiles and averages Mock drafts from fans and scouts, Cozens is a pre-season favorite for 2nd overall for next draft.
Those 2 will be able to score no matter which defenceman they are up against. The only hope is to limit their PP and hope they only score once a game.
Nolan Patrick the 2nd overall NHL pick in 2017 had extremely similar numbers to Cozens, except Cozens had 8 points in 12 games as a 15yr old in the playoffs, wheras patrick had 0 points as a 15. Patrick exploded as a 17...I'm eagerly anticipating what Cozens can do after having a full year under his belt.
If I'm Lethbridge I'm extremely afraid that their is a high risk both (bellerive/conzens) aren't here next season. I feel like Lethbridge has a lot of similarities to Regina, that they might peak a year before their memorial cup bid and need to make moves to re-arrange things.
As a Tigers fan I'm really hopping both Cozens and Bellerive are gone next year because they would be quite a handful to deal with next year. They are going to rack up a lot of points this year.
If anyone is able to go to training camp this weekend I'd love to hear your thoughts on some players that stood out.
Oil Kings haven't hit rock bottom yet. Scoring and goaltending will be major issues. Coaching is a huge question mark, Lauer's rep as a coach is questionable. Have to ask if the Old Boys Club have inflated it. Good bet Fix-Wolansky will be traded, cannot afford to lose him next season and get nothing. Rumor is he wants out anyways. Defense was soft and the word is it will continue to be with the style of hockey they want played. With very little grit and backbone this team will get hurt, especially with the number of players that are concussion time bombs.
Believe Red Deer maybe a contender, there was a lot to like towards the end of last season.
Calgary is in trouble, only a matter of time before Hamilton's coaching style will take effect. Real mystery why he was hired, unless you believe the rumor of the 2-1 backroom deal between Calgary and Edmonton. Feel sorry for the Hitmen players.
As well as anon 249
I would be interested in who looked good also if someone was watching this weekend
Mads is signed. 6’7” is big, real big. Anyone seen him? Can he play or does he just depend on being 6’7”?
I have heard that the team looks pretty good and that there is some good goaltending out there. But I have not heard anyone single one person out. It looks like we will have a solid team. One can only hope to get Quen and/or Shaw back - but we will see. I do think there are guys, especially on forward, who can step up.
Hamblin is captain. Jevne, Chyzowski and Lockner have been named alternates. Kind of surprised to not see Macpherson have a letter.
I thought there was always 4 in the leadership group and traditionally there is always both dmen and offence in the leadership group. Wonder if they are waiting to see if Quen comes back otherwise another dman will get a letter.
I totally disagree with your view of calgary. 9 solid defence. Confidence in new goalie enough to transfer sanders. Good scoring through out. Stotts focht kastilic Coleman etc. 7 first rounders. 2 good eurp defence.
Med hat a bit over rated, leth and rd under rated.
I am interesting in getting in touch with you about your writing, if you are interested send me a message at p.figler@dubnetwork.ca
The central is soo difficult to predict this season. I'm likely going to be wrong to some degree as changes happen.
With Calgary they have a good top 4, some good 2 way/defensive defenceman, with 1 good offensive dmen. It looks solid back there. I'm not sure about their goaltending. Its why I put them in the same tier, but above Edmonton, Kootenay. They do have the tools and are in the position to be underestimated and a dark horse.
I put them behind Lethbridge because I feel that even though Lethbridge doesn't look stellar yet towards their memorial cup bid for next season, they have been excellent at making deals to revamp their team. I'm counting on them doing that again. When it comes to Lethbridge, their goaltending is a big question mark. They have a drafted Import, however, sometimes those guys are still a bit raw for the first season. Their is potential to fall back, but if that happens they will likely look to change that.
I am biased towards the Tigers to some degree, but they should be better than last season because their whole core is back. the Tigers 3rd/4th lines will be much higher calibre than that of their competition, its why I have them ahead their overall depth is ahead of everyone in the central.
Tigers only really lost Rassell, they have a ton of guys who will put up bigger numbers. Just like calgary has Nielson,kryski, kastelic, stotts, focht....the Tigers have Williams, Chyzowksi, Jevne, Ostir, Hamblin, Brown, Haden..all those players will be pushing the 1 PPG mark and 18/19/20.
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Putting it all together I don't see 1 bona fida standout team. I think Brandon, PA, Saskatoon, Lethbrdige, Tigers...are all ahead of the game, throw in Calgary, EDM, as dark horses. I expect PA to look to bolster their roster for this season, Lethbridge for next season.
Last season I got Brandon wrong. If I miss the boat on a team that's great, because I can look back at their rosters and point projections and see where I went wrong!
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@paul I will email you in a few days. I am currently indisposed for a few days.
I also want to say I appreciate comments on where people think I go wrong. They make me look back and re-evaluate things. They may be right and if they are I definitely put that into my knowledge base for future seasons.
Where did you have Brandon last year ?
It was my first year of doing an Eastern Conference review.
http://tigerturf.blogspot.com/2017/07/eastern-conference-2017-2018-pre-season.html
I had them listed as having a potent top line, as well as a solid defensive core and solid goaltending. I had their drafting outlook rated as strong...
Moose Jaw and Regina were poised to have a strong team. I had also put swift current into the Dark-Horse contender sport, as I felt their roster was a bit stronger.
Nonetheless, I thought a successful season for Brandon would be a 3rd place finish and that they had attractive assets that could be used in the trade deadline. I was unsure about their secondary scoring. At the bottom of that post, I said I felt they were volatile and that they could be above average or below average depending on Nolan Patrick and their Euro's reporting.
I got their secondary scoring wrong, I didn't expect them to have breakout seasons. I feel that was because I just didn't know their roster well enough.
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